Latest News / Timeform / 05 April 2011 / 2

Timeform cast an eye over Paul's entries for this week's Grand National meeting at Aintree...

The Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, which Big Buck's will be bidding to win for the third time in a row. After seeing off the challenge of Grands Crus when completing his hat-trick of World Hurdles at Cheltenham last month, there isn't any good reason to think that Big Buck's won't be extending his unbeaten record over hurdles in this country. Gwanako, also owned by the Stewart family, is also reportedly an intended runner, perhaps to ensure the sort of true pace that could result in Big Buck's running to a top-class level of form - something he hasn't been required to do as yet this season.

Paul has three entered in the Anniversary 4-y-o Hurdle, chief among whom is the Triumph winner Zarkandar. Both Detroit City and Katchit have completed the Cheltenham/Aintree double since the latter race was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2005 (the only other horse to attempt the feat, Celestial Halo, finished second to Binocular at Liverpool) and Zarkandar has outstanding claims of becoming the third horse to double up, his form already setting a lofty standard in the division, with the prospect of much more to come. Empire Levant is also said to be a possible for the race, and he may be better than he has shown to date in Britain, seeming unsuited by soft ground when last seen at Kempton. As things stand, though, he looks to have place claims at best.

Denman goes in the three-mile totesport Bowl, for which he sets a lofty standard, having 18 lb in hand on his nearest rival on Timeform ratings, Carole's Legacy. If Denman runs anywhere near as well as he did in the Gold Cup last time, he should take an awful lot of beating, though it is worth mentioning that he hasn't been at his best either time he has been turned out for a run after the Cheltenham Festival, for all he'd probably have won this race in 2009 had he not fallen two out.

Woolcombe Folly and Tchico Polos are both said to be on track for the two-mile Red Rum Handicap Chase and both look to have some sort of chance. Woolcombe Folly was labouring from some way out in the Champion Chase last time, but his impressive handicap success at Cheltenham before Christmas has some substance to it and represents genuinely top-class form. Clearly, a BHA mark of 167 demands plenty from him, and he will be giving 9 lb and upwards all around, but he shouldn't be ruled out on that count alone. Tchico Polos will be one of a handful who will get into the handicap proper against Woolcombe Folly. He has already shown this season that he can go close off a mark in the high 150s, and Aintree is the sort of track that ought to suit his free-going style, though he will need to cut out the mistakes that have crept into his jumping on his last two starts.

Ghizao steps up to two-and-a-half miles for the Manifesto Novices Chase and he is certainly best not judged on his run in the Arkle last time, as he still looked to be going well enough when a bad mistake put paid to his chances there. It's worth remembering that he has two impressive defeats of Arkle winner Captain Chris on his record, and he is surely going to be a danger to that horse's stablemate Wishfull Thinking and another Arkle also-ran, Medermit, at Aintree.

Paul has four in the concluding two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle on Thursday, but has said that Sire Collonges may well be his only runner in the race, providing he gets in. His current BHA mark of 129 is generally enough to ensure a run in the race, and he'd certainly look an interesting contender if lining up as there's a feeling he hasn't shown all of what he's about in two runs in Britain. The better of his two British outings came when third in a competitive two-mile handicap Newbury in March, and the way he shaped that day suggested that a step up in trip could see him to even better effect, in which case he'd look a live danger at Aintree.

Of the four Paul has in Friday's opening two-mile Grade 2 novices' hurdle, Brampour is reportedly the likeliest runner. He ran well when ninth in the Triumph last time, without necessarily suggesting that he is open to any significant improvement. Current Event looks worth a chance in this sort of company having hacked up in an uncompetitive novice at Newbury at the end of last month, while Polisky is another who is open to improvement, having chased home the impressive Sprinter Sacre at Ascot on his British debut.

Robinson Collonges is set to be the yard's sole representative in the 25-furlong Mildmay Novices' Chase. He has rather been let down by his jumping at Cheltenham on his two most recent starts, including when bitterly disappointing in the Jewson at the Festival, but we do know that he has plenty of ability (would probably have beaten Wishfull Thinking at Wincanton in November but for falling). Robinson Collonges looks worth another chance, and the return to a flatter track may well help him. If he gets back on track, then he has the form to figure prominently at Aintree.

Master Minded is going to be Paul's only runner in the Melling Chase. He has shown this term that he is still a genuinely top-class chaser on his day, and he sets the standard judged on this season's form, but there is the obvious negative of his below-par showing in the Champion Chase to consider. Master Minded looked beaten when a mistake put paid to any chance he might have had a Cheltenham, and the fact that the Melling comes just over three weeks later is a cause for concern.

Mon Parrain goes in the Topham over the National fences on Friday in preference to the totesport Bowl and the 25-furlong handicap chase on Saturday. The handicapper doesn't look to have overreacted in raising him 16 lb to 149, as he could hardly have created a better impression when hacking up at Sandown on his British debut last month. He will be bidding to become just the third five-year-old to win the Topham, but there is at least a stable precedent as Gwanako won the race at that age in 2008. Mon Parrain will likely be joined by Fistral Beach and Free World. The former flopped when favourite for the Racing Post Chase last time, but he's feasibly handicapped on the form he showed when making a winning reappearance at Wincanton. Free World also ran poorly in the Racing Post Chase and has never really convinced going beyond two miles, so whether he'll get home in a well-run Topham is open to question. He is a bold jumper on the whole, so is at least the sort that could take well to the fences.

The Timeform Betfair Racing Club's Indian Daudaie is said to be on track for the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle on Friday. He ran well in the conditional riders' handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last time and three miles around Aintree should suit him, but he is probably running for a place if the likes of Bobs Worth show up.

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1. paul | 05 April 2011

   PUNCHESTOWNS will beat denman at aintree,loves flat courses and has been rested for this,denman had a hard race last time out and as you say has lost at this meeting twice before.he is 2 years older so why is he suddenly going to improve !

2. anthony | 06 April 2011

   i thought it would have been the obvious thing for paul nicholls to keep daryl jacob on zarkandar who he obviously gets on great with and will most likely get the leg up on in the champion hurdle. i suppose everyone cant believe in karma! theres more to life than making sure rubys happy

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