Paul Nicholls: Racing is not an exact science

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 28 October 2011 / 6

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Tataniano's season will now be geared towards the Champion Chase, reveals Paul

"As unpalatable as it may seem to some, the truth is that trainers don’t know when their horses are going to win – if only life could be that simple."

Paul admits that he called it wrong about the chances of Master Minded and Tataniano last week, but explains that assessing the fitness of class horses can be difficult...

I have been told there have been rumblings of discontent about my comments in last's week column on the respective fitness levels of Master Minded and Tataniano.

But before I address that, let's get one thing straight. Everyone who knows me is aware that I am 100% honest in my opinions, either in this column or to the press in general.

As unpalatable as it may seem to some, the truth is that trainers don't know when their horses are going to win - if only life could be that simple. Sometimes they don't even know the general and specific fitness of their horses, especially after such a dry autumn where getting grass schooling into the horses has been so difficult.

And, remember, the horses are working over 5f, not 2m+. And as everything comes so easily to the likes of Master Minded and Kauto Star - they always work well - it is difficult to gauge how fit they really are. It is easier to identify with lesser class horses.

I guarantee that all the top trainers are in the same boat on the prevailing firm ground at home.

And as for trainers "knowing" that their horses are going to win, that is generally pie in the sky as far as I am concerned, with few exceptions. Of course, we have an idea, but it is never definitive.

I said in my book that Venn Ottery was the biggest certainty we have ever sent out from Ditcheat when he won first time out for us at Leicester in 2004 - buy the book if you want the whole story! - and no doubt Martin Pipe will say the same about Unsinkable Boxer at Plumpton in December 1997.

But unfortunately you never know what you are going to bump into from another stable. Take Express Leader at Chepstow on Tuesday. We thought he was handicapped to go very well, and he duly ran a great race in second, but found one good in Drumbaloo, having his first run for Evan Williams.

Racing isn't an exact science, and nor is training.

I thought Master Minded would win despite not being fully wound up at Aintree, though I did say he would come on "enormously" for the run, which he will. And also I didn't realise the ground would be so quick on the day. And I thought Tataniano would need the run, hence running him over 2m and not 2m4f.

Yes, I was wrong on both counts but I would like to point out that my two previous weekend "bankers", Domtaline and Pepe Simo, both won by the way!

But let us hope that Tataniano really did need the run because he really bolted up, didn't he?! As he is now rated 169, his season will now be geared towards the Champion Chase, with the Green Bottle at the Paddy Power his next possible start.

Elsewhere, it was great to have a winner with our first runner for Graham and Andrea Wylie, and their Prospect Wells was another who really surprised me with the authority and manner of his victory at Chepstow.

When he first came to us, he was a challenge to say the least, and even after jumping 200-odd obstacles at home, I genuinely didn't know how he would take to hurdling on the course.

But he oozed class to overcome trouble in running, jumping fluently, and he could go to the Paddy Power meeting or a listed hurdle at Haydock.

The good start with the Wylie horses continued with Doeslessthanme at Fontwell yesterday and their most high-profile horse, Tidal Bay, is on course for a 3m1f chase at Aintree in December.

Weekend Runners, 9am Saturday

Don't forget to check out my column at 9am tomorrow for all my Weekend Runners, including my best chances.

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Want the latest betting news along with brilliant competitions and prizes for dedicated racing fans? Well just follow @BetfairRacing, Betfair's new racing Twitter fee for racing lovers. Next week plenty of tickets up for grabs for the Betfair Chase meeting.

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Kenneth Latham | 28 October 2011

I for one think Paul should receive a knighthood for giving us the info on his horses has he is on a hiding to nothing with some people
Jason | 28 October 2011

Without sounding rude (that's not the intention at all) what's the point in your collum if as you say "As unpalatable as it may seem to some, the truth is that trainers don't know when their horses are going to win" and "Sometimes they don't even know the general and specific fitness of their horses". Why is there a Paul Nicholls article at all?

Again not being rude but your columns has been consistantly poor for a long time and I fail to see what benefit your articles are to the general public?

Once again without sounding rude the only reason I've been reading them myself the past few weeks is because I've been interested to read just how wrongly/badly you have been judging
your horses. I found it quite remarkable.

Finally I don't think you can speak for all trainers as there as many superb trainers out there when interviewed/questioned/and on their own websites do have a fair idea of when their horses are going to win or at least go very close to doing so... and I don't think it's very fair for you to speak for "trainers", maybe replace that word with "I" when you refer to not knowing when horses are going to win.

Just some honest feedback, again not intending to be rude at all.
Jack | 28 October 2011

To be fair I don't think people are unhappy about you not picking winners but moreso the arogance portrayed in your article about how you had proven the doubters wrong last year and how you had him backed at 7/1 for the King George.

The article almost felt like you were rubbing it in the doubters faces, there is such a thing as a gracious winner, and maybe karma has caught up on you in terms of how you can't have a bad word said about your horses?

Maybe I'm completely wrong but it seems that way from reading your article and the negative comments on it.

Your a great trainer but maybe a change of attitude in how you talk about your horses is needed.... i.e less arrogance, it doesn't make for good reading.
Anonymous | 29 October 2011

hi Paul,

i dont think you should even have to respond to the negative rumblings.. its unbelievably refreshing to have a trainer of your standing being so open and honest about your horses every weekend.. i for one greatly appreciate your open views. best of luck for the rest of what is sure to be another fantastic season for the team at Ditcheat..
paul | 29 October 2011

Its great that betfair have got Donald Mccain onboard,so it will be interesting to see how he views his horses in his article against Paul Nicholls.It should give the betfair punters plenty of thought on who tells it like it is or gives mixed messages on the runners.I for one find this interesting as the season pans out and the runners from both stables take each other on in the big races.Well done betfair just get Henderson and Hobbs onboard and us punters will have cracked it !
Vinny F | 29 October 2011

Well folks the column is there for all to see. You can read it if you want or leave it if you want. Personally I generally lay all of Paul's horses that he speaks possitively about. Obviously there's the odd won that beats me (Pepe Simo etc) but in general laying the horses he fancies works out at quite a decent profit, not massive, but decent.

It's a game of opinions... That's life

A knighthood? Folks I'm sure Paul is paid to do this so leave talk a knighthood at home will ya for goodness sake.