Paul Nicholls: What to expect from Zarkandar at Newbury?

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Zarkandar at "festival peak" last year

"If Zarkandar doesn’t win here, then I wouldn't immediately dismiss him for the Champion."

In a frank assessment, Paul Nicholls explains that, while his Triumph Hurdle winner is improving in time for Cheltenham, an honourable defeat at Newbury on Friday would not spell disaster.

Fair play to sponsors Betfair for pumping more money into this meeting to keep this race as the UK's richest handicap hurdle with prize money of £152,500; last season the winner was racing for just over £34,000 and we didn't have a runner. But we have three this year, and all have chances.

Here are my thoughts on Zarkandar; come back tomorrow at 8am for my assessment of all my other runners at Newbury, Sandown and Fakenham:

If only life was as simple as some people are making out and my Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar is thrown in off a mark of "just 151" here, given the way the form of that Cheltenham race has worked out. Obviously, I hope that he is but I don't think it is as straightforward as some people are speculating. And it is interesting to see that while Timeform have him as their top-rated horse in the race, it is only by 1lb.

Yes, the Triumph form has been franked time and time again this season - even the tenth horse home, Smad Place, won a handicap by seven lengths off 144 on his reappearance at Ascot - and so I have to be hopeful. And I am very hopeful. But those winners have surely all improved - I can certainly tell you that Brampour has - and Zarkandar's workmanlike manner at home (it was the same last season, so don't be worried on that score) means that, hand on heart, I cannot say the same of him for sure.

But we know this horse comes alive on the track, the breathing operation he had in the summer appears to have done its job in that he doesn't make a noise now, and he is an unbeaten horse with scope for plenty of improvement. And he schooled really well on the grass with Celestial Halo on Tuesday. And if you go back and watch his Triumph win, you have to be really impressed by the turn of foot he showed to put the race to bed very quickly.

And Trudy, who has ridden him out every day for the past 18 months or so, reckons he is a much stronger horse this year. And he certainly looked ok when doing a racecourse gallop with Poquelin three weeks ago.

But is he a value bet at 3-1? Everyone knows that I am not a betting man, so I am probably not the best person to ask.

But those odds don't particularly tempt me, especially as I don't have him 100pc for this race. Yes, of course, he is fit enough. You don't run horses in these races half-baked, that's asking for trouble. But he isn't at what I would call a "Festival peak".

One thing is for sure; if he doesn't win here, then I would not immediately dismiss him for the Champion; after all, Flakey Dove was beaten off a mark of 149 in this race before winning the 1994 Champion Hurdle a month later.

And, remember too, that Long Run was beaten off a mark of 158 in the Paddy Power before going on to win the King George and Gold Cup.

He has to run well for us to still consider the Champion, and you clearly have to be running well off a mark of 151 with the likes of Hurricane Fly waiting around the corner, but an honourable defeat wouldn't be the end of the world.

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We visited Ditcheat last week to video Paul's Newbury runners on the gallops. Watch them in action now