Latest News / Jamie Lynch / 19 January 2011 / 2

Timeform's Jamie Lynch advises that we don't get caught up in the mass tide of presumption that Kauto Star is suddenly past his sell-by date...

The phenomenon is known as autoresuscitation, or sometimes Lazarus Syndrome. The murky waters of folklore and religion aside, there have been just thirty-eight recorded cases in the world; that of someone being pronounced dead, only to miraculously recover a pulse minutes or even hours later, literally knocking on the morgue door in the case of Judith Johnson of Delaware.

Though stopping short of declaring Kauto Star a perpetual non-runner, the general reaction to his King George defeat has felt almost like an obituary, not only taking it for granted that he's a spent force but also, in some quarters, imploring his immediate retirement. It's definitely a sporting thing, it's probably a British thing, and it may simply be a human thing, but we're prone to knee-jerk judgements; to fixate on the nearest evidence at the expense of the bigger picture; to wear blinkers.

Let's take, for one example of how isolated snapshots can influence perception, the Betfair market for the Premier League. Manchester United, top of the table, are currently trading at [1.95], but have already in the course of the season hit a maximum of [8.0] and a minimum of [1.74]. There has been at least as much fluctuation for Arsenal (high of [13.5] and low of [3.85]) and Manchester City ([32.0] and [5.9]), while yo-yo Chelsea were laid at [12.5] and backed at [1.44]. Yes, someone, somewhere, sometime thought that Chelsea was a good bet at 4/9.

No doubt, at that time, Chelsea looked a certain Championship winner, convincing people to act on impulse, forsaking the grand scheme, all the while encouraged by a wave of media overreaction to the events of that weekend. Equally, at this time, Kauto looks a certain Championship loser, convincing people to act on impulse, forsaking the grand scheme, all the while encouraged by a wave of media overreaction to the events of last weekend.

In horse racing especially, we should know better. Of course, racing needs to be analysed, which is exactly what Timeform does, but racing doesn't need to be dramatised, and therein lies the difference between sense and sensationalism. Remember Workforce in the Dante? The pre-race hype distorted the bare facts of his so-called disappointing performance that day, and the rest, as they say, is history. Then there's Denman, whose lacklustre reappearance at Kempton in 2009 after well-documented heart problems resulted in identical doom-mongering, and yet a mere month later he ran one of the races of his life to finish second in the Gold Cup, behind Kauto Star no less, which brings us back to the subject matter: Kauto himself.

The best chaser of the last forty years and surpassed in Timeform's experience over jumps only by Arkle and Flyingbolt, Kauto Star has set the sort of precedents by which anything other than perfection is viewed as failure, with no room for forgiveness. No, Kauto wasn't his usual self on Saturday, apparent some way out as he neither travelled nor jumped with his trademark fluency, but the truth that most seem unwilling to recognise is that a clearly sub-standard Kauto Star was still in with a shout for a fifth King George turning for home, and that he would have finished second but for walloping two out, not to mention the fact he was later found to have bled; but then again, like I said, there's no room for forgiveness where Kauto is concerned.

For so long heralded let alone accepted as the best for decades, the only question over him was whether it was pronounced 'Cor'-to or 'Kay'-to, but the new debate, one that will rage on over the next two months and be discussed by far more knowledgeable people than an outsider like me (being a Flat geek and not a National Hunt one), is still fairly simple: did Kempton represent an off day for Kauto Star, or did Kempton represent his days being numbered?

The purpose of this piece is not to persuade you to lump on him for the Gold Cup but simply to dissuade you from getting caught up in the mass tide of presumption that Kauto Star is suddenly past his sell-by date. It was little over a year ago that Timeform described his fourth King George win as 'a stunning, near-perfect performance,' earning him a monster rating of 191, and it was only two months ago that he won his fourteenth Grade 1 at Down Royal, when the big engine was still firing on most if not all its cylinders on his first start back.

All being well, Kauto Star will make it to Cheltenham on March 18th, and he'll line up with a CV and recorded rating that none of his rivals can match, Denman and Imperial Commander included. Ruby will be back on, and in Paul Nicholls he has the best in the business to prepare and repair him, Kauto Star requiring minor tuning rather than a full service. Put it that way, and the [10.0] on offer about him for the Gold Cup is tempting, you have to admit.

Contrary to some reports, Kauto Star is still very much alive and kicking, and he has a big chance; more of a chance than Judith Johnson appeared to have.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(2)

1. Ed | 20 January 2011

   A lot of sense in this article. I've had a bit on the GC. No better trainer, no better horse.

2. julian seymour | 27 January 2011

   I did tell you kuato would be turned over in the king george. And same aplies to denman gold cup. Thay have both been stars.
   But its the end of the road now. Not so with big bucks hes bang on. However there is a horse paul has that is as good as big bucks in the yard. Watch this space a new kid on the block is comeing. And hes fireing on all cillanders.

:

:

:

?

: