Trainer In Focus: William Haggas

Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 17 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey looks at the facts to consider before backing a William Haggas trained horse.

Based at Newmarket, William Haggas, a son in-law of Lester Piggott, had his first winner in 1987 with a horse named Tricky Note, and has enjoyed considerable success since, including winning the 1996 Derby with Shaamit. With just under 100 horses in training, Haggas is kept busy with regular engagements throughout the flat season.

Prize money

I thought I'd start with an unusual angle here. I've been researching the lower class races recently (races where the prize money is £4,000 or less) and it has thrown up some interesting results to say the least. I've no name for it yet, but the working title for the strategy is 'Profit from crappy racing'! Catchy eh?

They may not be the most glamorous or exciting type of race, and you certainly won't see tops and tails, but they serve a purpose. Certain trainers know which weak races to target with their horses, and William Haggas is one such man. Had you backed every Haggas horse in races where the prize money was £4,000 or less, you would have had 141 winners from 667 bets (21%) and shown a profit of £628 to £10 stakes.

Courses

There are a number of courses where Haggas shows a good win rate and profit to go along with it, but when I analysed each and broke it down by season, it proved inconsistent. While there are no stand-out winning courses, knowing were not to back can be just as useful. Haggas has a poor record at Newmarket, York, Chester and Goodwood - where he's had just 35 winners from 346 races collectively. Following Haggas at these courses shows heavy losses for the backer.

Number of runners

A bit of a no-brainer really, but the smaller the field, the better his horses perform. In fact, in fields of six horses or less, Haggas has a win rate of 35%, and shows a profit of £190 to £10 stakes.

Prices

Again, this is a pretty obvious one, but horses at the lower end of the market perform far better than outsiders. Since 2003, 79 of William Haggas' horses have gone off odds-on, with 55 winning (70%). Had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd show a small profit of just over £80.

Handicaps

Haggas shows a small profit in handicap races, but with a strike rate of 15.72%, you may be waiting some time for those winners to come along. Interestingly, 36% of his horses are placed in handicaps, so they may be worth keeping an eye on in Betfair's place markets. As yet, there's no simple way to back track to check for profitability there.

Days since last race

Interestingly, Haggas' horses perform best after they've rested for some time. Horses that haven't raced in 90 days or more show a win rate of 39%, which is quite high, compared to his average win figure. Profit to £10 stakes works out at just over £390.

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