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Trainer In Focus: Sir Michael Stoute

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Nearly 40 years in the game and Sir Michael Stoute is still sending out winners. But when's the best time to back one of his runners? Wayne Bailey breaks down the stats for you...

The original Godfather movie was playing in the cinemas, Donny Osmond was singing 'Puppy Love', and Manchester United were languishing in 18th position in the old Division One. If you haven't worked it out yet, the year was 1972 - and it really is that long since Michael Stoute took out his first British training licence.

The son of a Barbados police chief, Michael Stoute settled in England at the tender age of 19. Not many would have foretold that this young man would dominate British racing for the next three decades, breaking many records along the way. His most famous (or infamous) horse was Shergar, but he's handled dozens of top class horses besides. There's no sign of him slowing down any time soon, so I've broken down his record to find out when's the best time to follow his horses...

Overall
Stoute's appetite for the racing game is as strong as ever and he has an average win rate of over one in five races. Incredibly, had you backed every single horse trained by Stoute since 2004, you would have broken even to traditional SP, and shown a profit of around £250 to Betfair prices (to £10 stakes).

Time of the year
Stoute usually performs well at the start of the season, and his horses are particularly worth noting during the month of May. Up until recently, it was quite profitable to follow his horses blindly during this month, but the layers have since recognized this gravy train, and prices are less generous these days. The 2008 season has started well, with his four-year-old horses in particular standing out.

Tracks
We've all heard the phrase 'horses for courses', but I'm a firm believer that trainers also have their favourite courses where they like to send horses when a good opportunity arises. For Stoute, it appears that Brighton is one such course, where he's had nine winners from 18 races in recent years. It's a small sample, but a 50% win rate is a fantastic achievement. Other courses where he's done well over the past few years are Thirsk (43% win rate), Wolverhampton (34% win rate), and Pontefract (30% win rate). In fact, had you backed his horses at each of those tracks since 2004, you'd have had 46 winners from 126 bets, and shown a profit of £420 to £10 stakes.

Age
When a new flat season arrives, there's always plenty of lively and exciting debate about what stable has the best debutantes, and which three-year-olds can frank last year's form. Amid the hype, the older horses often get overlooked. Remember, form is the punter's best friend, not speculation. Older horses usually have plenty of runs under the belt, and there's not so much guesswork involved. Stoute is in this game long enough to know which races to enter his older horses in, and is an excellent decision maker in this regard. Due to his careful race planning, his horses aged four and older have a very decent win rate of 26%. Indeed, had you stuck a tenner on each since 2004, you'd be nearly £1000 richer today.

Days since last race
Most punters are wary of backing a horse that hasn't been seen in some time, but there's no need for such worries with Sir Michael Stoute. In fact, horses that have a break of three months or more perform extremely well (28% win rate). Blindly backing each has shown a healthy return over the years. Spanish Moon, Heaven Sent, Jamboretta and Ask are just some of the 2008 winners so far.

All-weather
As mentioned earlier, Stoute performs well at Wolverhampton, but has a good record on the all-weather as a whole. He specialises in training his all-weather horses for the medium to long trips (1m2f or more). Since 2004, he's had 15 winners from 47 bets at these distances, and this approach shows a very healthy return to level stakes.

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