Betting on a Graham Lee ride? Read this first!

Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 06 May 2008 / 6 Comments

Wondering when to back a Ballydoyle runner? Read on...

His training facilities are unrivalled. He has wealthy millionaires constantly sending the best horses his way. He consistently wins many of the top races in Britain, Ireland and beyond, and is arguably one of Ireland's greatest ever trainers. It would seem logical to back Aidan O' Brien trained horses right?

If only things were so simple in the betting world.

The problem with following the best trainers (and jockeys for that matter) is that half of Britain and Ireland is also doing so. Included in that bunch are the thousands of what can only be described as mug punters, that spend two minutes looking at the racecard, spot a familiar name, and stick a few quid down. It might only be small change, but small change adds up. You don't need a degree in rocket science to work out that if a lot of people want to back something, the layers will cut the price.

So then, is there any value left in Aidan O' Brien for those of us who like to put a bit of work into our betting?

I could suggest that you go down the laying road, and that could probably make a decent article in itself, but there's something special about backing the top horses in the top races. My first real bet as an adult was on an O'Brien horse; Istabraq in the 1998 Champion Hurdle. Every time I watch a replay, I feel those shivers that one can only get from having been 'on' that day. It doesn't matter if the bet was a fiver or £500 - I backed it, I was part of it, and that's what counts.

That's the sentimental side of betting. The other part of me realises however, that sentiment and sheep mentality have no place in serious punting. Most sheep don't live happily ever after. In order to avoid the metaphorical slaughterhouse, we must detach ourselves somewhat from the hype surrounding a stable, and pick and choose carefully when to 'get on'.

I don't want to ignore O'Brien's horses simply because everyone else is backing them, so I went through his record with a fine tooth comb, to see if there are any profitable angles left at all.

My search for the utopia where backing the best O' Brien horses still yields a profit has thrown up some interesting results...

(All data is from 2003 - 2008 and includes both British and Irish racing)

Ratings
Ok, I'll admit that this is a tiny sample, but backing O' Brien's classiest horses pays. Horses with an official rating of 121 or higher have a record of 11 wins from 15 bets, and show a profit of £120 to £10 stakes. Yeats can continue this trend in 2008.

Field size
This is a no-brainer really, but his horses do better in smaller fields. In fact, in fields of five or less, O' Brien's normal win rate of 22% is almost doubled to 42%. If you had stuck a tenner on each, you'd be £410 better off today.

Going
This is an interesting one that I've no real explanation for. It could be a false trend, but it will be interesting to see if it continues this season. On firm ground only, O'Brien horses do extremely well with a 40% win rate and a profit of nearly £200 to £10 stakes. It's an unusual one, so proceed with caution.

Race age restrictions
An angle that's often ignored, the age restricted races are something I want to delve into further. In races for horses aged 4yo+, O' Brien has had 26 winners from 84 races, and shows a profit of £345 to £10 stakes.

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Hopefully, there'll be quite a few O' Brien horses falling under the above criteria this year, so some interesting bets should be in store.

Let's hope also, that one of those bets ends up being a Classic winner - just so when I'm old and grey, I can watch the replay with the grandkids and say to them...

"Yep, I was on!"

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We welcome feedback (good and bad!), so please post a comment below.

Comments (6)

1. Wayne Bailey | 07 May 2008

   Thanks for the comments Anthony. I hope to have something done on Sir Michael over the next two or three weeks, so check back soon.

2. peter gavin | 27 May 2008

   could you please tell me where i could get access to all the racing stats ie trainers/jockeys ratio of winners/losers etc

3. Wayne Bailey | 27 May 2008

   Hi Peter,

   The Racing Post website will give you a certain amount of information for free if you do a search for a trainer. You can then select things like race type, country etc. It's fairly basic, but I'm not sure how advanced you want to go.
   www.racingpost.co.uk

   The Adrian Massey site has a wealth of information and again, it's all free. You can select the 'custom report' sections of the site to get your data. The downside is that his results don't include Irish racing, which is a big minus for someone like me who is an avid follower.
   www.adrianmassey.com

   Horse Race Base is a great tool (It's a donation site, so you pay what you see fit!) for system building/looking at records etc, and includes both UK and Irish racing.
   www.horseracebase.com

   If you are only after basic data, the above should be fine. There are other powerful system builder/data mining sites out there however. They all cost money, so only buy if you are serious about it and know what it is you want:

   http://www.timeform-i.com/

   http://www.raceform.co.uk/

   http://www.rsbweb.com/main/home.htm

   Hope this helps.

4. Wayne Bailey | 30 July 2008

   Update:

   I'm glad to report each of the above strategies are all showing a profit. Here are the results since May, when the article was first published:

   RATINGS:
   Bets: 2
   Wins: 2
   Strike rate: 100%
   Profit to £10 stakes: £17.50

   FIELD SIZE
   Bets: 14
   Wins: 6
   Strike rate: 42.86
   Profit to £10 stakes: £38.80

   GOING
   Bets: 33
   Wins: 11
   Strike rate: 33.33%
   Profit to £10 stakes: £309.91

   RACE AGE
   Bets: 18
   Wins: 8
   Strike rate: 44.44%
   Profit to £10 stakes: £53.40

   Total profit to £10 stakes: £419.61
   

5. Garry Bettle | 13 August 2008

   Hi Wayne,

   Many thanks for the article.

   How did June pan out?

   Cheers,

   Garry

6. Wayne Bailey | 18 August 2008

   Hi Garry,

   The above update shows the results for June/July 2008. Thankfully, all four strategies showed a profit.