Betfair Official Blog

National Hunt Betting: Who blossoms in the Spring?

When you speak, Wayne Bailey acts. One of our readers was curious to know which trainers perform best at this time of year, when National Hunt racing traditionally starts to wind down for the Summer.

A few weeks ago, I spoke of the annual headache for punters during the spring, when the National Hunt season starts to wind down and there's a crossover with the flat. Eventually, the flat will take over, and the jumps will take a background seat for the summer months.

As showed by my research on Irish trainers, it is clear that some jumps stables take a less aggressive approach at this time of the year, and as such, record significantly less winners than their average figure. Some like to rest their animals over the summer and I'd boldly suggest that certain springtime jumps horses are having an easy 'wind down' run after a busy season. On the other hand, some stables keep up the tempo and continue firing the winners home despite the time of the year. And that's what causes the headache for spring jumps punters - we're trying to second-guess the approach that the trainer is taking.

While that article was based on Irish trainers only, few people will be surprised that my research shows a similar tale in the UK too. There's no simpler way of saying this: certain jumps yards simply stop performing each year in the spring.

Therein lies the difficulty for us punters - we have to hope we're not backing the 'wind-down' stables. But I firmly believe that every difficulty presents opportunity, and by isolating the stables that do well (or poorly), we can continue to bet on the jumps with confidence. So when should we play, and when do we lay in the spring?

Like in Ireland, there are a number of key UK jumps trainers to note at this time of the year (April to June inclusive). All data is based on the past five years...

Backing

P Bowen

In the past eleven years, Peter Bowen has done an enormous amount of work in building his Little Newcastle stable up from scratch. With one win in five, Bowen has a decent strike-rate at this time of the year, but he specialises in sending out 'fresh' horses. Horses that have run in the past 20 days prove lucrative to follow in the spring, and he's had 45 winners from 166 bets (27%) over the past five years. Sticking a tenner on each would show a cracking profit of £1070 to date.

G A Swinbank

Alan Swinbank trains in both flat and National Hunt, but it's his jumps horses that step up a gear at this time of the year. He has a springtime jumps win rate of over 22%, and while blindly backing each produces a loss, careful consideration should be given to any of his horses running in the spring.

He's particularly successful with horses that won last time out, and can be trusted to follow up. While it's a small sample, nine of his horses followed up on a previous win (out of 21 races), and following each would have shown a small profit to level stakes.

G L Moore

Gary Moore has a win rate of 18% at this time of the year, but he's particularly successful when sending his horses the short distance to Fontwell, where he's had 32 winners from 100 runners over the past five years. Blindly backing his horses at Fontwell at this time of the year shows a profit of nearly £600 to £10 stakes.

Laying

No need for a write up on each, but it's sufficient to say that horses from the following stables should be layed, or avoided at the least during these months:

• MJ Gingell: One win from 168 races
• ST Lewis: One win from 126 races
• Mrs J C McGregor: One win from 88 races
• B Mactaggart: One win from 87 races
• Mrs L C Jewell: One win from 78 races
• PF Murtagh: Two wins from 128 races
• Dr P Pritchard: Three wins from 158 races
• Miss S E Forster: Three wins from 144 races

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As usual, we welcome your comments, so feel free to post your thoughts.