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McEvoy the magnificent!

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Wayne Bailey considers the career of one of Australia's best - but most under-rated - jockeys...

The rugged coastline of Streaky Bay, a small fishing village in South Australia, will probably not be familiar to most British and Irish punters. This sleepy village seems a million miles away from the hype and excitement of the five Flat racing classics, that we eagerly anticipate each season in this part of the world. But all punters should however, acquaint themselves with one of Streaky Bay's most talented sons: Kerrin McEvoy.

McEvoy grew up with racing in the blood as his father, and grandfather before him were both successful jockeys on the Australian circuit and Kerrin's career reads just like a fairytale...

At the age of 20, and just six days after completing his apprenticeship, he was offered a chance ride in the 2000 Melbourne cup on outsider Brew, after the original jockey cancelled half-an-hour before race time. Brew flew home by two lengths, and the big-time owners and trainers stood to attention. In 2004 Kerrin was installed as Godolphin's second rider after Frankie Dettori, and he's continued to delight his employers and followers ever since.

So when's the best time follow him in the UK? Well, in short, any time over the past three seasons would have been just fine! Amazingly, backing all of his rides has shown a level stakes profit each season since 2005. I often wonder if the layers are paying too much attention to Godolphin's other superstar Frankie Dettori - as McEvoy's horses are often allowed to got off at ridiculously high prices. Whether this oversight will continue in 2008 remains to be seen, but I'll certainly be sitting at my computer ready to pounce. While the Flat season won't kick off for another few weeks yet, we've broken down McEvoy's UK stats (2004-2007) in the hope that we'll catch some layers snoozing yet again this year.

Overall

McEvoy has had 239 winners from 1738 races (16.9%). Backing every one of his rides would have showed a fantastic profit of £1413 to £10 stakes since he start riding in Britain.

Tracks

Two tracks in particular show high strike rates and profit for McEvoy, namely Newcastle (33.3%) and Nottingham (28.8%) Blindly backing at both tracks shows a profit of over £370 to £10 stakes to official SP (over £550 to Betfair prices).

Tracks to avoid are Brighton (5.3%), Folkestone (8.7%) and Chester (8.8%). Collectively, McEvoy has had only six winners from 76 races at these tracks, which would have lost the backer an average of £5.59 for every £10 staked.

Distance

McEvoy's strike rate is below average in five furlong (10.3%) and 6F (13.9%) races, which are probably too short and frantic to allow him to put his full set of skills to the test. Mid-range distances seem to be his forte (1m to 1m3f) where he wins an average of one in five races. Backing him in such mid-distance races provided 132 winners from 649 bets and a return of 127% for the backer.

Trainers

As mentioned earlier, McEvoy gets most of his rides from the massive operation that is Godolphin. Invariably, this means that many of his UK rides will have Saeed Bin Suroor listed as the trainer. Blindly backing McEvoy on board all of Bin Suroor's horses shows a profit over the years, but this profit is enhanced greatly if you focus on maiden races only. Riding for Godolphin, McEvoy has won 42 maidens from 140 races (30%), which provided the backer with a profit of £156 to £10 stakes.
McEvoy has also shown considerable success for Sir Michael Stoute, and yet again, maidens are the races to follow with a 31.7% strike rate and a profit of over £280 to £10 stakes (Betfair prices).

In Summary...

• Back his horses at Newcastle and Nottingham
• Avoid/Lay his horses at Brighton, Folkestone and Chester
• Avoid his horses in five or six furlong sprints
• Back his horses in mid-range distances (1m to 1m3f)
• Back McEvoy when he is riding in maidens for Saeed Bin Suroor or Sir Michael Stoute

* If you have a particular jockey or trainer whose record you would like analysed, post a comment and we'll provide the results.

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