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Johnson's yard may be dual-purpose but when should you be backing his horses?

Wayne Bailey breaks down J Howard Johnson's statistics...

For National Hunt trainers, there's no greater accolade than having a high-profile winner at the greatest jumps festival of all: Cheltenham.

Similarly, for flat trainers, a winner at Royal Ascot in front of the Queen herself must be right up there on top of the hopes and dreams list.

J Howard Johnson has managed both.

While primarily a jumps yard, Johnson became dual-purpose in 2004. With horses running all year round, following his yard can be tricky. In an attempt to sort the wheat from the chaff, I've broken down eight years of data to see where the best bets may lay:

Overall
Following Johnson's National Hunt horses provides a better return overall than on the flat. Blindly backing his jumps horses show a 16.7% strike-rate, and an average loss of £1.47 for every £10 staked. On the flat, he shows only half as many winners (8.3%), and an average loss of £3.08 to every £10 staked.

Time of the year
Historically, the month of January has proved lucrative for Johnson backers. Since the year 2000, he's had 56 winners from 295 races in January alone, which provided a profit of £449 to £10 stakes at official SP (over £1700 to betfair prices). There's no sign of 2008 bucking the trend, with six winners from 29 bets so far, and a profit of over £500 to Betfair prices.

Tracks
Most trainers perform well at certain tracks, and poor at others. Johnson is no exception. In jumps racing, his strike-rate at Carlisle (27%), Ayr (25.3%) and Haydock (21.4%) are particularly impressive, and blindly backing him at those tracks produced a return of 136% since 2000. Tracks to avoid are Kelso (9.2%) and Perth (7%), where significant losses are incurred for the backer.

On the flat, there is no stand out successful track, but there are certainly a number to avoid. Collectively, Doncaster, Hamilton, Haydock and Newcastle show a terrible strike-rate of 4.7% with just seven wins from 150 races.

Distance
There's nothing significant on the jumps side of things, but there's certainly some laying opportunities on the flat. Johnson's horses perform better in sprints (five, six and seven furlong races) than in longer distance races. In fact he has had only ten winners from 242 races when the distance was one mile or greater. Laying each of his horses in races over 1m+ shows an average return of £5.51 to every £10 staked using Betfair prices.

Form
In National Hunt, Johnson's horses that have shown good form last time out (1st or 2nd) can be trusted to follow up their success. Such horses show a win rate of nearly one in three, and a profit of £220 to £10 stakes using betfair.

Days since last run
Yet again, it's the National Hunt horses that show the way statistic wise. Jumps horses that are 'fresh' (that is, horses that have not ran in the past 60 days) show a win rate of nearly one in five, and a very small profit to the backer. 'Fresh' novice chasers are particularly noteworthy, with a 30% strike rate, and a return of 114%.

Jockeys
Dennis O Regan, Graham Lee and Anthony Dobbin are the three jockeys to follow on the jumps. Each show a strike-rate over 20%, but more importantly, a profit to level stakes. On the flat, Robert Winston was the jockey to note, but a year long ban after an inquiry into race fixing has put an end to that.

Conclusions
While Howard Johnston has been showing improvement on the flat, he's still relatively new to it so all bets should be treated with caution. There are some significant trends over jumps however, and with some selectivity, it should be possible to churn a small profit. So in summary...

• Back his horses in January
• Over jumps, back his horses at Carlisle, Ayr and Haydock and avoid or lay his horses at Kelso and Perth
• On the flat, avoid or lay his horses at Doncaster, Hamilton, Haydock and Newcastle
• Avoid his flat horses when the distance is 1m or more
• Back his jumps horses if they won, or came second last time out
• Back his horses in novice chases if they haven't ran in 60 days or more
• Dennis O Regan, Graham Lee and Anthony Dobbin are his most successful jockeys

If you have a particular jockey or trainer whose record you would like analysed, post a comment and we'll provide the results.