Betting on a Graham Lee ride? Read this first!

Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 22 January 2008 / 9 Comments

Wayne Bailey has analysed the stats of one of Ireland's top jumps jockeys...

It was Frankie Dettori who captured the nations attention when winning his 'magnificent seven' races at Ascot in 1997. On the jumps however, Graham Lee was not far off when recording a quintuple at Wetherby in 2003, and scooping one lucky punter a cool half million in the process!

Born in Ireland (Galway) in 1975, Lee's current price of 2.2 in the National Hunt jockey championship (betting without McCoy) seems about right. He's having a pretty good season so far, and looks set for continued success in the years ahead. So what are the standout stats? We've broken down eight years of data to find out...

Overall
Lee has rode 633 winners from 4598 races since the turn of the century (13.8%) and blindly backing every horse provided an average loss of £1.67 for every £10 staked.

Tracks
The track that gives Lee his most success is Wincanton with a strike rate of 33.3%, and provided a profit of £148 to £10 stakes (Betfair prices). This success has continued in 2008 with three wins from six rides for the year so far. Just as important, the tracks to avoid are Hereford (4.3%), Aintree (7.1%) and Ludlow (7.8%). Collectively, laying Lee's rides at these tracks provided a return of 137.8%

Races
If you spot Lee riding in a novice chase/novice handicap chase, it's time to log on to Betfair. Blindly backing him is such races provided a profit of over £3600 to £10 stakes on the exchange, a fantastic dividend that dwarfs the return to official SP (£791). 2008 has gone off relatively slowly, but with selectivity, it should be relatively straightforward to pick quite a few choice cuts each year!
The type of races to avoid are selling hurdles, where Lee has only found his way to the winners enclosure 11 times from 191 races (5.8%).

Prices
There's an old saying regarding prices you've probably heard many times (especially on outsiders) which goes something like: "Back it anyway, the horse doesn't know what price he is!"
The extent that prices play on betting decisions vary greatly from punter to punter, but from a purely statistical point of view, it's the shorter priced Lee horses that hurt the layers' pockets most. In fact, backing his horses priced [2.38] or less showed a strike rate of 60%, and gave a return of 117.3% to the backer over the past eight years. At the very short end of the scale (horses priced [1.5] or less), there were 28 wins from 33 bets (84.8%), and a return of 112% for the backer.

Form
If the horse that Lee is riding won last time out, he can be expected to follow up 27% of the time on average. While this approach provided a profit of over £550 to £10 stakes using Betfair prices, the results varied considerably from year to year, so some caution and selectivity is advised.

Trainers
While officially freelance, Graham Lee takes most of his rides from Ferdy Murphy, where he also helps out with some training duties in the yard. Lee shows a decent profit when riding for J Howard Johnson, but a disagreement over an injury has seen such rides dry up unfortunately. Lee also gets the odd ride from Peter Monteith, and that partnership shows a 25% strike rate, and a decent level stakes profit.

Summary...
• Back his horses at Wincanton. Avoid or lay his horses at Hereford, Aintree and Ludlow
• Back his horses in novice chases/novice handicap chases. Avoid his horses in selling hurdles
• Don't be afraid to back his short prices horses
• Note any rides for trainer Peter Monteith

Trivia...
- Lee's grandfather played football for Kilmarnock.
- Lee won both the English and Scottish Grand National in the same year (2004) riding Amberleigh House and Grey Abbey respectively.
- Fellow Irishman, Tony McCoy counts Lee among his close friends.

* If you have a particular jockey or trainer whose record you would like analysed, post a comment and we'll provide the results.

Comments (9)

1. Rusty | 23 January 2008

   Query Should Hamilton read Haydock.

2. Stu | 23 January 2008

   Hi Wayne,

   I really enjoy your stuff on here - it's cracking.

   Ever since Kerrin McEvoy nabbed the St Leger on Rule of Law I have instinctively felt that he is a jockey to follow. If you think this would be fruitful I'd be interested in seeing his performance analysed statistically.

   Thanks muchly.

   Stu

3. De Feypo | 23 January 2008

   Wayne,
   I was also wondering whether Hamilton was a misprint because I thought it only staged flat racing.
   Anyway, thanks for the info Wayne.
   DF

4. Wayne Bailey | 23 January 2008

   Thanks for the feedback guys - always appreciated.

   Apologies, the track should not be Hamilton, it should read WINCANTON. I've no idea how Hamilton slipped in there! I'll get the ed. to change that. Good to see someone is on the ball!

   Stu, I agree that McEvoy is definitely one to follow and is one of the most underrated jockeys of all in my humble opinion. In fact, blindly backing EVERY horse he rides has shown a profit for the past three years in a row - which is remarkable really. I'll start work on breaking down the stats this weekend so there should be an article published on Tuesday, 29th January.

   Wayne

5. T Mack | 24 January 2008

   Wayne,
   This may seem to be a slightly irrelivant question but could you tell me at what courses does course form stand up best.
   Thanks a lot
   Mack

6. Wayne Bailey | 25 January 2008

   Hi T Mack,

   I'm delighted you asked that question, because having done some research, it appears that the course in question is extremely important.

   Below are the results of backing a horse that has won at the track previously.

   As you can see, if a horse is running at Cartmel for example, and has won there before, it merits serious consideration, as nearly one in five go on to win again.

   But have a look at York at the bottom. Only 8.6% of course winners go on to score again which is pretty low.

   It's certainly a very interesting angle to consider when studying the form.

   Results are from 2000-2008:

   Track ......... Winners ....... Return to SP

   Cartmel ..... 18.90% ..... 93.50%
   Fakenham ..... 16.30% ..... 86.60%
   Wetherby ..... 16.10% ..... 88.70%
   Exeter ..... 15.60% ..... 86.50%
   Newton Abbot ..... 15.50% ..... 71.80%
   Wincanton ..... 15.50% ..... 79.30%
   Fontwell ..... 15.20% ..... 83.60%
   Hereford ..... 15.10% ..... 82.90%
   Plumpton ..... 15.00% ..... 86.50%
   Ludlow ..... 14.70% ..... 90.70%
   Sedgefield ..... 14.60% ..... 79.20%
   Carlisle ..... 14.20% ..... 75.80%
   Folkestone ..... 14.00% ..... 82.30%
   Hexham ..... 14.00% ..... 79.70%
   Kelso ..... 14.00% ..... 78.80%
   Perth ..... 14.00% ..... 84.80%
   Chepstow ..... 13.70% ..... 86.80%
   Market Rasen ..... 13.60% ..... 82.10%
   Stratford ..... 13.60% ..... 80.80%
   Warwick ..... 13.10% ..... 80.50%
   Ayr ..... 13.00% ..... 82.10%
   Huntingdon ..... 13.00% ..... 65.30%
   Worcester ..... 13.00% ..... 72.70%
   Newbury ..... 12.80% ..... 77.90%
   Bangor ..... 12.70% ..... 78.30%
   Leicester ..... 12.50% ..... 76.30%
   Musselburgh ..... 12.50% ..... 77.90%
   Uttoxeter ..... 12.40% ..... 74.80%
   Salisbury ..... 12.30% ..... 108.10%
   Towcester ..... 12.30% ..... 76.00%
   Cheltenham ..... 12.10% ..... 77.40%
   Haydock ..... 12.10% ..... 79.40%
   Newcastle ..... 12.10% ..... 82.70%
   Taunton ..... 11.80% ..... 69.70%
   Chester ..... 11.70% ..... 93.10%
   Sandown ..... 11.60% ..... 72.40%
   Catterick ..... 11.50% ..... 81.10%
   Windsor ..... 11.50% ..... 87.70%
   Ascot ..... 11.40% ..... 74.10%
   Ripon ..... 11.40% ..... 85.90%
   Wolverhampton ..... 11.40% ..... 74.30%
   Beverley ..... 11.30% ..... 83.50%
   Epsom ..... 11.20% ..... 87.90%
   Kempton ..... 11.20% ..... 70.00%
   Southwell ..... 11.10% ..... 76.60%
   Lingfield ..... 11.00% ..... 73.60%
   Aintree ..... 10.60% ..... 75.70%
   Doncaster ..... 10.60% ..... 78.50%
   Hamilton ..... 10.40% ..... 64.70%
   Newmarket ..... 10.40% ..... 81.30%
   Yarmouth ..... 10.30% ..... 72.00%
   Pontefract ..... 10.10% ..... 79.00%
   Nottingham ..... 10.00% ..... 80.10%
   Thirsk ..... 9.90% ..... 73.40%
   Brighton ..... 9.80% ..... 65.80%
   Redcar ..... 9.80% ..... 68.30%
   Goodwood ..... 9.60% ..... 69.20%
   Bath ..... 9.40% ..... 56.70%
   York ..... 8.60% ..... 64.60%

7. T Mack | 28 January 2008

   Excellent - thanks wayne!

8. De feypo | 31 January 2008

   Two things thatare of interest to me regarding the course form stats.
   1) The top ten courses are exclusively NH courses and the bottom ten exclusively Flat(turf) courses. Not a surprise yet still interesting.
   2) I would have thought with the unusual make of Brighton and the testing nature of Haydock that they would both be higher up on the table.
   I would imagine that the NH aspect of Haydock Park would have course form at a fairly high strike right which is brought down by the opposite code.Am I correct in thinking this?

9. Wayne Bailey | 01 February 2008

   COURSE WINNERS - NATIONAL HUNT:

   Course .... Strike Rate .... Return to SP

   Cartmel ... 18.90% ... 93.50%
   Newcastle ... 17.40% ... 100.30%
   Ayr ... 16.90% ... 81.80%
   Carlisle ... 16.30% ... 80.20%
   Fakenham ... 16.30% ... 86.60%
   Wetherby ... 16.10% ... 88.70%
   Folkestone ... 16.10% ... 89.00%
   Leicester ... 15.80% ... 88.10%
   Wincanton ... 15.60% ... 79.40%
   Exeter ... 15.60% ... 87.20%
   Chepstow ... 15.60% ... 86.00%
   Newbury ... 15.50% ... 76.90%
   Newton Abbot ... 15.50% ... 71.80%
   Fontwell ... 15.20% ... 83.60%
   Hereford ... 15.10% ... 82.90%
   Plumpton ... 15.00% ... 86.50%
   Ludlow ... 14.70% ... 90.40%
   Sedgefield ... 14.60% ... 79.20%
   Perth ... 14.00% ... 84.80%
   Hexham ... 14.00% ... 79.70%
   Kelso ... 13.90% ... 78.20%
   Warwick ... 13.90% ... 69.40%
   Sandown ... 13.80% ... 76.70%
   Musselburgh ... 13.80% ... 72.10%
   Wolverhampton ... 13.80% ... 110.30%
   Stratford ... 13.60% ... 80.80%
   Market Rasen ... 13.60% ... 82.10%
   Ascot ... 13.40% ... 65.80%
   Southwell ... 13.20% ... 73.50%
   Worcester ... 13.00% ... 72.70%
   Huntingdon ... 13.00% ... 65.30%
   Kempton ... 13.00% ... 63.10%
   Catterick ... 12.70% ... 86.90%
   Bangor ... 12.70% ... 78.30%
   Haydock ... 12.60% ... 79.20%
   Uttoxeter ... 12.40% ... 74.80%
   Towcester ... 12.30% ... 76.30%
   Cheltenham ... 12.20% ... 78.00%
   Doncaster ... 12.20% ... 74.60%
   Lingfield ... 12.10% ... 66.30%
   Taunton ... 11.70% ... 69.10%
   Aintree ... 10.60% ... 75.70%
   Windsor ... 8.30% ... 10.70%

   COURSE WINNERS - FLAT (TURF)

   Course .... Strike Rate .... Return to SP

   Wolverhampton ... 14.50% ... 87.30%
   Salisbury ... 12.30% ... 108.10%
   Warwick ... 12.30% ... 91.30%
   Musselburgh ... 11.90% ... 80.40%
   Chester ... 11.70% ... 93.10%
   Haydock ... 11.70% ... 79.60%
   Windsor ... 11.50% ... 88.40%
   Ripon ... 11.40% ... 85.90%
   Chepstow ... 11.30% ... 87.80%
   Beverley ... 11.30% ... 83.50%
   Folkestone ... 11.20% ... 72.80%
   Epsom ... 11.20% ... 87.90%
   Newbury ... 10.90% ... 78.90%
   Catterick ... 10.90% ... 78.20%
   Carlisle ... 10.60% ... 68.20%
   Ascot ... 10.60% ... 77.40%
   Kempton ... 10.60% ... 90.20%
   Hamilton ... 10.40% ... 64.70%
   Newmarket ... 10.40% ... 81.30%
   Yarmouth ... 10.30% ... 72.00%
   Pontefract ... 10.10% ... 79.00%
   Leicester ... 10.10% ... 67.30%
   Doncaster ... 10.10% ... 80.10%
   Ayr ... 10.00% ... 82.30%
   Nottingham ... 10.00% ... 80.10%
   Thirsk ... 9.90% ... 73.40%
   Brighton ... 9.80% ... 65.80%
   Redcar ... 9.80% ... 68.30%
   Sandown ... 9.70% ... 68.90%
   Goodwood ... 9.60% ... 69.20%
   Bath ... 9.40% ... 56.70%
   Newcastle ... 8.90% ... 72.40%
   York ... 8.60% ... 64.60%
   Lingfield ... 8.40% ... 60.70%
   Southwell ... 8.20% ... 68.70%

   
   COURSE WINNERS - ALL WEATHER

   
   Course .... Strike Rate .... Return to SP

   Wolverhampton ... 11.50% ... 74.40%
   Lingfield ... 11.30% ... 75.00%
   Southwell ... 11.20% ... 77.10%
   Kempton ... 10.90% ... 65.30%