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Who will strike gold at Clonmel today?

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The Clonmel Oil Chase is the highlight of a great day's racing at the County Tipperary track. Irish racing expert Wayne Bailey marks your card...

When a horse has a name like Justified, it's very tempting for us racing analysts to come up with a catchy, clichéd phrases to use in our articles. So , how about:

"A Justified Favourite" ... or perhaps ... "Just too good!"

I'm quite proud of that last one but that's plainly enough of the clichés for now. Nevertheless, whichever way you look at it, Justified deserves to be at the top of the market for today's Clonmel Oil Chase at 13:55. In fact, I'd say that a price of 2.5 or more would represent fantastic value. His trainer Dusty Sheehy, has dropped him back to what I feel is his optimum distance of around two miles and four furlongs after his unsuccessful run at Down Royal recently, when coming second to Taranis. That race was over three miles, and the speed of it simply didn't suit.

The opposition was much better too, so I'm willing to forgive him for that day. Sheehy is upbeat too, saying: "He's in very good form and it will be no bother whatsoever stepping back in trip. The ground is good but it might be good to yielding by tomorrow as they're set to have a drop of rain. It would be beautiful ground I would have thought."

A quick look through Justified's record shows 11 wins, seven seconds, and one third from his 25 starts. While most of his wins were on softer ground, he's proved that he can handle good ground too. His versatility should shine through today against a lesser opposition.

Ruby Walsh takes the reins for his second time (he was successful on Justified at Gowran park back in October), and is said to be confident of a win today.

It won't be a stroll in the park however, and stiff opposition should come from two horses in particular:

Jessica Harrington's Knight Legend was going well when brought down last time out at Down Royal. He raised a few eyebrows when beating Central House at Punchestown back in October by quite a distance, but I believe that race was not as competitive as it should be, and any mistakes will be exposed today. I must give credit where it's due, and note that he has shown some fine jumping in recent times. With three to be placed, I'll certainly log on to Betfair's place market and look for some value. Any price around the 2.2 mark or above will do just fine.

The other one to consider is Michael Hourigan's Mossbank. If he can capitalise on the 13lbs he's conceding from Justified, he can certainly make an impact. The problem with Mossbank is his inconsistency. He shows spurts of brilliance and then runs a stinker, so it's hard to have absolute confidence. Again, the place market may be an option and prices over 2.0 seem fair.

Light On The Broom has been progressing nicely this season, and hasn't done much wrong. However, he'd need to put in the best performance of his life in order to end up at Clonmel's winners enclosure after today's contest. Sher Beau is probably worth a mention, due to his decent performance when coming third at this very track on the 1st November, but like Mossbank, he's inconsistent and can't be relied on.

Ansar and Kill Devil Hill are about the best of the rest, but should be outclassed fairly easily.

So there you have it, chasers, Clonmel, and clichés.

I just hope the attention I gave here in my write up to Sheehy's charge is ... ahem, ... justified!

(Ok, I'll get my coat!)

* Share your thoughts....

Have you spotted something that Wayne's missed, or do you have a different angle? We welcome all comments and criticism, so go ahead and give your two-cents worth!