St Leger Betting: Ralph Beckett's Look Here to keep the prize in Britain.

005 Irish Racing / Editor / 09 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Irish have dominated Group One racing in 2008, but Wayne Bailey believes the St Leger prize will remain firmly in England this year...

As an Irishman, it's been a joy to watch our horses consistently raid the best races in Britain this year. O'Brien has taken eleven Group One races, Bolger has three.

The Brits? Well, it's hasn't been pretty.

But anytime I try to rub your noses in it, you nice people take it in a good sporting spirit and congratulate the spectacular Irish success stories. You appreciate good horses when you see them, and seem happy to see us do well. Stop doing that!

Ireland is finally good at some sport, and we want to gloat. Can you not just become sore losers so we can feel smug for once? Since when have the English become good losers?

Seriously though, I've often warned people about the dangers of patriotic punting, and this year I'd certainly feel sorry for any British racing fans that like to back domestically trained horses in the big Group races. And while I'd like to see O'Brien and his Irish team win another English classic, I'm staying away from the Irish trained horses in this year's Doncaster St Leger.

As much as I enjoy some friendly rivalry between the Irish and British in racing, the truth is that outside of Cheltenham, it doesn't exist to any large degree. Punters have long realised that getting paid out on a winning bet feels better than following the home team. From a betting point of view, that's exactly how it should be.

It's very rare that I use the words 'lay' and 'O'Brien' in the same sentence, but with Frozen Fire trading as low as [3.5], I'll definitely be clicking that ante-post pink button for my fellow Irishman's colt. The more I study horseracing, the more I realise that the ground is perhaps the most important factor in deciding certain horses' chances of winning. In fact, I was cruelly reminded of this when Duke Of Marmalade was withdrawn from the Irish Champion Stakes on Sunday, and my ante-post bet went out the window. The culprit of course, was the rain.

Sure, I accept that the English weather is as changeable as a chameleon on acid, but I'm really doubting that the favourite will get the good ground that he likes on Saturday, and that fact alone makes [3.5] look too short. Indeed, just yesterday O'Brien stated that his plans for Frozen Fire were uncertain, and the ground is the key factor in whether he'll run or not. The ante-post layers could well get paid out, and not even have to worry about the race itself.

But besides the ground worries, there's also the distance. OK, he handled 1m4f in the Irish Derby just fine, but that's no reason to assume that he'll like another two furlongs. I'm not stating that he won't like it - I'm saying that we don't know. That race wasn't the strongest ever Irish Derby and I think there's too much guesswork involved on Saturday.

For me, the [5.3] available on Look Here makes much greater appeal. She's only had three runs to date, but adapted successfully to varied ground conditions on each occasion. She went off friendless in the Juddmonte Oaks at [63.0], but I've watched that race a few times now and her win was certainly no fluke. In fact, she had them beaten quite some distance out.

So then, I'm going to have the best of both worlds at this year's St Leger. If the Irish win, I'll raise a glass or two and celebrate yet another success for my country- but if the English win, I'll be quids in!

Some might accuse me of 'having my cake and eating it' but hey - it's quite a tasty cake!

• Ante-post advice: Back Look Here at [5.3] and lay Frozen Fire at [3.5]

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