
Hail Willie, the king of Thurles!
Irish racing expert Wayne Bailey looks at Thursday's action at Thurles...
The Thurles publicans wont thank me for this, but I'm going to let you in on a little secret.
On Thurles race days, for the past number of years now, a certain trainer has been the toast of the town. How the layers haven't woken up to this is beyond me. After the day's racing is over, punters retire to the bars and raise their glasses in honour of their favourite trainer.
That trainer is Willie Mullins, and following every one of his horses blindly here over the past five years shows one win in four, and a very healthy profit to go along with it. That equates to a lot of happy punters, a lot of pints of Guinness, and a lot of happy publicans.
While reading the early declarations for today's racing, you can imagine my enthusiasm when I noted that Mullins had three entries for the Thurles chase at 13.45, with smart gelding Our Ben currently trading at (3.65) looking like his strongest asset. My excitement was diluted however, when I checked out the opposition. It looks like a certain horse may be out to spoil the party.
Michael O' Brien may take the steam out of Mullins' sails with the ever versatile Forget The Past (2.28). Like a lot of Irish-based horses, I feel that the nine year-old may be slightly under-rated due to his lack of success on the British scene, but make no mistake - when conditions are right, O'Brien can shoot and score.
He's well established on the Irish circuit. Out of 22 starts, Forget The Past has won eight times and finished in the top four 17 times. He has wins under the belt in both hurdles and chases (under various distances), but if you ask me, he's a chaser at heart. On paper, he should take this easy enough, but after looking through his record, the ground has become a concern for me. All of his wins to date have come on good-to-soft or softer, and it looks like the going may be good come race time. O'Brien was cautious but upbeat when asked about his chances: "'It depends on the weather, we need to get a drop of rain. I want to run him anywhere really to get a race into him. He's ready to run."
Obviously, good ground will be a concern today. Then again, he's been versatile in many ways so far, so who's to say he can't adapt once again?
As mentioned earlier though, its always worth noting Mullins' horses here. He has three entered today, namely Adamant Approach, Livingstonebramble and of course, Our Ben.
Adamant Approach (11) actually beat Forget The Past over hurdles before, but conditions were much in his favour that day, and he'll probably be happy for some place money here. Livingstonebramble (10.5) has disappointed of late, and one wonders if he's only out for the run.
Our Ben can provide decent opposition to Forget The Past, but he must ensure his chasing mistakes are behind him. He's shown tremendous ability, but eyebrows have been raised about his jumping from time to time. Ruby Walsh takes the reins once again, and that alone instils a certain amount of confidence. Our Ben is simply impossible to rule out, and this may make for one of the most exciting Irish contests so far this season.
Let's be honest, it's a tough one to call, and it'll be interesting to watch the markets to see where the money goes. The stats say a Mullins horse should take this race, but things aren't as simple as that when you've top class horses like Forget The Past involved.
Perhaps now is the time to get that dutching calculator out!
Forget The Past won the 13:45 with Our Ben back in third
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