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UB40, Dundalk and Ger Lyons - there is a connection!

Wayne Bailey, our Irish correspondent, has noticed a trend which could be profitable

In my hometown of Dublin recently, the legendary 80s reggae band UB40 announced a one-off gig. Famously named after the unemployment benefit form (Unemployment Benefit - Form 40), I decided that a night of nostalgia was in order, and the Birmingham group were not to be missed!

I procrastinated however, and kept saying: "I'll buy the tickets tomorrow."

The gig completely slipped my mind, and while sipping my tea one morning reading the paper, I spotted a review of the night. The concert had passed me by - I missed the boat.

Punters are acutely aware of that feeling. You read the racing results in the paper and think: 'I should've backed that!"

Very often, punters will follow a horse or trainer for most of the season, and then only bet when it's too late. The problem with waiting until a horse or trainer has clearly established himself, is that unless you've really done your homework, everyone else has copped on too - and this will be reflected by the short prices that clued-up layers are offering.

When it comes to racing trends, sometimes we need to get on the train early, enjoy the ride, and get off before it crashes.

A very interesting trend has only just begun to emerge in Ireland recently. It involves Dundalk's new all-weather track and top Irish trainer, Ger Lyons (whom appears as G.M. Lyons on the racecard). It's as simple as this: His horses are winning plenty of races at all age levels.

Not only that, it's still proving very profitable to back his horses (at all ages) when running at Dundalk, as it appears that most punters have not copped on yet. During recent meetings at the track, all eyes have been on the big guns, such as O'Brien and Oxx, yet Lyons has been sneaking quite a number of winners home, at decent prices too. He's also had success in both National Hunt (jump) racing and also on the flat. And now, it appears, he is set to replicate that success on the Polytrack.

The problem with newly emerging trends however is that a certain amount of blind faith is involved. In comparison to well-established tracks, Dundalk has held only a tiny number of meetings to date, so it's questionable as to how reliable such a small sample of results actually are. We must also be aware, that Lyons may have simply had a winning streak to start, and that things could cool off soon.

That said, I think it's worth taking a risk, and expect more of the same from Lyons for at least a while yet. There is no guarantee of continued success, but I'll be even more disappointed if I miss out this time. Of all people, it was UB40 who once sang: "Don't let it pass you by, you gonna wake up an wonder why" (The rest of the song goes on to discuss marijuana smoking, so now would be a good time to move on, and look at the actual stats!)

Here are the results of backing all Ger Lyons trained horses at Dundalk's all-weather track since it opened back in August:

Age Races Wins Placed (inc. win) Profit to £100 stakes
2yo 10 2 6 £50
3yo 9 3 4 £1,133
4yo+ 8 2 5 £1,250

The booking of jockey Johnny Murtagh can be seen as an added bonus. Blindly backing every Lyons horse rode by Murtagh here had five wins from 13 races, and a profit of £1,433 to £100 stakes.

On a side note, this was the fist year that Lyons started to send horses to the UK on a regular basis. The county Meath trainer's UK stats (2007) look like yet another trend to watch:

Races Wins Places (inc. wins) Profit to £100 stakes
14 3 9 £2,200

By the way, UB40 also had a lesser-known song called 'The Train Is Coming'. This time, I don't intend on missing it!

Upcoming Dundalk entries for Ger Lyons:

26 Oct 2007 6:45 Archmani
26 Oct 2007 7:15 Killinan
26 Oct 2007 7:15 Eskadron
26 Oct 2007 7:15 Nortburn
26 Oct 2007 7:45 Homebrew
26 Oct 2007 8:45 Crannog Cross
26 Oct 2007 9:10 In Theory
26 Oct 2007 9:10 Rockazar

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