Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 08 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Irish racing expert Wayne Bailey takes an early look at the odds ahead of the Pierse Hurdle Handicap, Sunday's treat for jumps fans.

It's been billed as a battle between two top trainers - Willie Mullins is bang in form and leads the 08/09 Irish Championship, while Tony Martin is recognised as a handicap expert. Their horses lead the early market on Betfair but make no mistake, this race is a very competitive affair and very difficult to win.

Martin has stated that he's had this race in mind for months, but it would take a man braver than me to lay Mullins' horses right now. As spectators, we'd all love to see the great battle of trainers that some are billing this contest as, but it would be foolish to rule out some of the bigger priced horses in the betting just yet. In the middle of a recession, the prizemoney is a very reasonable €100,000 and it's not just Martin and Mullins who have an eye on that cash...

Psycho (Tony Martin)
This horse let me down at Cheltenham in a race he should have won but ended finishing second behind Silver Jaro (priced at [86.0] on Betfair) in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle, and I've been wary of backing him since. There's no doubt that the horse has some decent ability, and if we're to believe the sound bites, Tony Martin is still keen on his chances - but he's not done much since last March and my own opinion is that the horse is somewhat unreliable, making his price of [7.8] unappealing.

Robin Du Bois (Tony Martin)
Second in the betting at [8.8] Psycho's stablemate won relatively easily at Cork last time out, but it wasn't a race that told us a whole lot, and was a very minor event in comparison to this. The early money came for the six-year-old and he traded as low as [6.0] a few days ago, but that's since dried up somewhat. I believe that this horse has room for improvement and we haven't seen the best from the gelding as yet, but any price below [10.0] is simply too short in this race.

Imperial Hills (Willie Mullins)
Paul Townend may well get the ride here and there's no doubt that this jockey will be big. A race like this would be fantastic for the Cork man to win and Imperial Hills is not without his chance at around [13.0]. He impressed at Leopardstown recently and should have some more to come this season. I'm hoping he'll make the handicap, but he's quite some way down the list and I'm not keen on taking an ante-post price due to this uncertainty.

Fen Game (Edward O'Grady)
He was beaten by Imperial Hills last time out, but in fairness he was giving that horse a stone and still put in a very decent performance. I think this horse has loads of potential and is worth a chance at [13.0]. He's proven at the distance which is important in this contest and by all accounts he came out of that Leopardstown race very well.

Dancing Tornado (Michael Hourigan)
Another horse that's on the up, and his Leopardstown Golf Academy Hurdle win at the Christmas festival saw a return to winning ways after coming close over the past year. He seems to be slotted in nicely in the weights and [14.0] makes some appeal. He'll have to be at his best to take a race like this, but a place is certainly not out of the question.

Conclusion
I'm not keen on taking any price below [10.0] in a very open contest so that rules the two market leaders. In fact, I'm happy to avoid the hype horses and instead take a chance on Fen Game to win and place at a nice value price instead. As usual, we welcome your feedback, so post your thoughts below.