Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 17 June 2009 / Leave a comment

We've a mouth-watering Irish Derby to look forward to on June 28 as Sea The Stars locks horns with Fame And Glory once again. It's going to be close, but the John Oxx colt can do the Derby double writes Wayne Bailey...

I broke one of the golden rules of punting when changing my mind in the Epsom Derby by jumping ship and backing Sea The Stars - after supporting Fame And Glory in the preceding weeks. Normally, a ghastly fate awaits a turncoat punter but on this occasion, lady luck shined on me.

It looks likely that Sea The Stars will go head-to-head with O'Brien's horses once again in this year's Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby and a decision must be made on whether to stick with the son of Cape Cross at a short price, or else look for a 'value' option.

I guess it's easy to say this now, but Sea The Stars was a pretty obvious bet at Epsom. The form was in the book for all to see - indeed, Timeform had him rated 6lbs clear of the field so in retrospect, his price was a steal.

However, he's likely to be quite short for the Irish equivalent so it won't be as easy to back him this time around. At this early stage, I wouldn't be keen to have a bet as the horse needs the ground in his favour. Last week, his trainer John Oxx told the press:

"The Irish Derby is the obvious next race for him, but he's dependant on goodish ground and the weather in Ireland he has been bad for two and a half years!"

Oxx is a straight talker and is not the type to risk running his horses if conditions are not right. Therefore, I'll wait until the day of race before betting. But what about Fame And Glory?

It's hard to call. O'Brien is well known for using team tactics but Seamie Heffernan's ride in the Derby wasn't exactly his shining moment although we can only assume he was riding to instructions. Surely some different tactics will be employed at the Curragh but will it be enough? Certainly, softer ground will help so keep one eye on the weather if you are thinking of backing the son of Montjeu.

But for me, Sea The Stars is still the one to beat. In the Epsom Derby, he answered any stamina questions hanging over his head and there's no reason to believe the form will be reversed at the Curragh. Even if Fame And Glory had been given a different ride, I doubt the outcome would have changed.

There's no getting away from the fact however, that the price is likely to be very short. In these situations, I like to take a simple approach and ask myself what chance I believe the horse actually has. Personally, I believe he has roughtly 50% chance of winning the race so on that basis; any price above even money is value from my point of view. Of course, this is all specutalive and I'm sure some of you disagree completely - but that's why we have betting exchanges!

That price also assumes that the ground will come up right on the day; so I'm keeping my gunpowder dry for now.

Another one to take from Epsom was Mastercraftsman and he looks set to improve. The Irish Guineas winner stayed clear of the others and ran on strongly at Epsom, so he may enjoy a return to the Curragh. Depending on prices, he may be one to take in the place market.

It's a tricky one folks so as usual, thoughts and tips are welcome!

***