Betting Strategy: Following the British raiders in Ireland can pay its way

005 Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 28 October 2008 / 2 Comments

Backing certain British trained horses when they are sent across the water can be a simple but effective strategy writes Wayne Bailey...

He may have been half joking, but Paul Nicholls certainly raised a few eyebrows recently when he suggested that he could win the Irish trainer championship this season but his recent raiders here have proved that he's serious about taking our prizemoney - and lots of it.

Indeed, one British high street bookie have Nicholls as low as [3.25] to take the Irish championship and it was announced yesterday that Kauto Star will make his seasonal re-appearance in Ireland this year at Down Royal on Saturday.

The 'Travellers' Check' section in the Racing Post is always interesting, but I'm a bit suspicious about how valuable the information actually is. In Britain, a trainer will regularly send horses hundreds of miles but as far as I can see, the distance travelled doesn't seem to have as big an impact on the horses' chances of winning as punters seem to believe. However, sending a horse to a different country is another matter entirely.

It's a pity they don't have a travellers' check for Irish racing because if they did, they would see that certain trainers specialise in raiding the Irish prizes with Paul Nicholls right up that list. I've checked out the data from 2003 to the present, and have come up with a shortlist of British based trainers to note when they send their horses to Ireland...

Paul Nicholls

The aforementioned Paul Nicholls simply must be followed when he sends his horses across the water. He's had nine winners from 17 bets here (52.94%) and shows a profit of £160 to £10 stakes. When teaming up with Ruby Walsh, he's had an incredible nine wins from ten bets, which showed a profit of £229 to £10 stakes.

Roger Charlton

The Beckhampton based trainer has a 45.45% strike rate in Ireland with five winners from eleven races thus far. Had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd be £27 better off today to traditional SP- however my own records show that this figure could be enhanced considerably by using exchange prices.

Sir Mark Prescott

Sir Mark will be no stranger to readers of these pages, and with 13 wins from 29 races (44.83%); his strike rate in Ireland is quite impressive. When he teams up with Declan McDonagh, it gets even better with eight winners from fifteen races.

Jonjo O' Neill

The Irishman based at Jackdaws Castle is the private trainer to JP McManus, and has landed some spectacular wins down through the years. When in Ireland, he's had ten winners from 40 races since 2003, and shows a profit of almost £390 to £10 stakes.

Dandy Nicholls

The north Yorkshire based trainer has sent 48 horses to Ireland since 2003, and found the winners' enclosure on ten occasions. Had you placed £10 on each horse, you would have shown a profit of £90. Again, my records show that this figure is increased significantly by using Betfair prices.

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Comments (2)

1. Bernard | 28 October 2008

   Hi mate, What price do you think Kauto will start at?

2. Wayne Bailey | 29 October 2008

   Hi Bernard, it's hard to say really. On paper, he's a class apart, but backers won't forget Aintree too easily last year. A good guess would be 1.6 to 1.7