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Assessing the Ballydoyle challenge for this year's Arc

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Betfair pundit Noel Bell goes through the Irish entries for the 2007 Arc

Punters face the added difficulty of pre-empting the race plans for the Ballydoyle horses when trying to solve the puzzle of this year's running of the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe.

However whilst Aidan O'Brien has virtually swept the board of group races this season he has yet to win Europe's premier all age Group One. The last Irish-trained winner was Sinndar for John Oxx in 2000. Previously, Alleged completed successive wins in the hands of Lester Piggott for the maestro Vincent O'Brien in 1978.

Ballydoyle have made hay this summer with Dylan Thomas whilst the ground has been good. However - in that sentence lies the key to Dylan Thomas's chances - the state of the ground. It's important to realise that the Longchamp authorities regularly water their track hence the ground is unlikely to be in the favour of this horse even if we get a heat wave next week. It is not uncommon, for instance, to be at Longchamp on race day in blinding sunshine when the ground is soft. At the time of writing Dylan Thomas is trading at 8.8 (8-1) on Betfair, a price that would seem attractive in the unlikely event of the ground being on the fast side of good on the day.

Solider of Fortune completed his Arc trial in very convincing fashion on Sunday in the Prix Niel and he looks a certain starter for the Arc. His Irish Derby form convincingly proved his stamina and ability to act on soft ground.

My concern, however, is his ability to travel with pace in the hustle and bustle of a big field and to be in a challenging position when they sprint for home - a concern that would not apply to Authorized. I would not be keen to take any short prices about Solider of Fortune in such a competitive race.

Unlike Dylan Thomas, Peeping Fawn goes on any ground, perhaps like all good horses should, and has seemingly improved with every race this year. She is entitled to be crowned the "Giants Causeway" of her gender and would have a great chance of winning if allowed to take her chance. Alas, that seems unlikely. At the time of writing she is currently trading at 38 on Betfair, a price that would seem huge if she was indeed to line up against the colts.

Looking back to the Irish racing action this week, I was particularly impressed with the success of New Approach in holding off the late challenge of Rio De La Plata in the National Stakes at the Curragh. Goldolpin had despatched that horse to Ireland full of confidence in taking on the best of the Irish juveniles in the "Lions Den".

Frankie Dettori received some criticism from Betfairians on the Betfair Forum for not giving his horse a more enterprising ride. However, I believe that the tough and resolute New Approach would have won that race irrespective of the riding tactics of Rio De La Plata. I am sure that Jim Bolger, who trains in Coolcullen, will iron out his evident temperament problems and I fully expect this horse to emerge as the winter Derby favourite.

Irish racing festivals go from strength to strength and the Listowel fixture in North Kerry will finish another successful marathon week on Sunday. Keep an eye on Tony Martin's Millanymare, a convincing winner at the course on Tuesday in the hands of Ruby Walsh, who holds an entry at Listowel on Sunday.

Ballinrobe holds a mixed card fixture on Monday. I enjoyed a day's racing at this natural panoramic amphitheatre of this track in August and fully recommend a visit to the Western track. Caravel is an interesting entry for Sir Mark Prescott in the "Irelands Lake District race". Recent course winner Piano Star reverts in hurdles for the "Tommy & Martha Joyce Memorial Handicap Hurdle" and the gelding should be followed off his hurdle mark if allowed to take his chance.