'And they're off!' - The Irish Flat season gets underway this Sunday

005 Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 19 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey's best betting is done on the flat across the Irish Sea, so it's no wonder he's excited by the start of the season this weekend.

In Ireland, Nation Hunt racing is deeply ingrained in society and I often feel like a heretic when I tell friends that I'm looking forward to the flat season!

Perhaps I'm a little paranoid but I hate when anyone asks me what code I prefer as it generally feels like a loaded question. The simple answer is that I enjoy the National Hunt as a spectacle, while I prefer to punt on the flat. I'll admit that there's nothing that can match the Cheltenham Festival, and we still have Aintree and Punchestown ahead of us; two festivals I enjoy immensely - but my Betfair P&L doesn't lie and it's clear from my records that flat racing treats me far better from a betting point of view.

On that note, if you are not regularly downloading your profit/loss records to excel and saving files over the years, you should definitely start. I've always advised punters to keep good records, and downloading your Betfair profit/loss is the least you should be doing. I can assure you that the filter function can be a revelation! Successful betting is not just about picking winners, it's also about avoiding losers too - so it's essential to know where you are going wrong over time.

Anyway, back to topic - the 2009 Irish flat season kicks off at Irish Racing HQ (The Curragh) on Sunday, so here are a few pointers that may help throughout the coming season. In case anyone (Jack Houghton!) thinks I'm flogging some systems here, I'm making it clear now that it's not the case. The below are merely pointers that will play a part in my own betting strategy and readers can consider/disregard them as they see fit.

I don't agree with every racing article I read, and we all must make up our own minds when placing a bet. The below are just some of the variables I'll consider this year when punting - but we must all do what works best for ourselves. As usual, I'll report back later in the year with profit/loss.

Have a good reason if opposing Irish maiden favourites
Be sure you have a good reason when you oppose an Irish maiden favourite as they win almost 40% of all races and have a place strike-rate of 73%. Their win-rate varies by price obviously but those are the general figures overall. In fact, Irish maiden jollies that were also favourite in their previous race have a strike-rate of 49% and show a 14 point profit if blindly backed since 2003.

Note Ger Lyons' horses at Dundalk
One of my first ever articles for this site back in 2007 advised punters to pick up on the early trend and start backing Lyons trained horses at Dundalk.
Had you placed £10 on every Lyons horse at Dundalk the following year in 2008, you would have showed a profit of £284.20. The layers will be ready for us at this stage, and I'm not expecting prices to be as good so perhaps we'll have to be more selective in 2009. That said, all of his horses are worth noting there, not least when Johnny Murtagh gets the ride.

Back Aidan O'Brien's best horses
Another no-brainer strategy I advised many moons ago, but it proved quite profitable since published so may be worth considering again in 2009. Backing the maestro's horses rated above 120 had five winners from five bets in Ireland last season and interestingly, it showed a profit of... five points.

Note Joanna Morgan trained horses with Pat Smullen on board
Admittedly, the sample is small but they've had ten winners from 34 races in the past two years (all handicaps) and show a profit of £230 to £10 stakes. Keep an eye on the duo in 2009.

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If you have your own Irish racing strategies for 2009, I'd love to hear a few so feel free to make a post below.