Tipping / Graham Cunningham / 16 April 2010 /

It's the crossover period of the racing year, with Classic contenders reappearing on the
Flat at Newbury and high profile jumpers looking to squeeze one last big prize from the season on Scottish National day at Ayr. Finding the winners won't be easy, but Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham has been eyeing both cards for the value angles.

Out The Black the value call to make the most of Denman's absence

There must have been a few pained skirls and skrieghs (that's shrieks and screams if you aren't from north of Hadrian's Wall) among the merry management team at Ayr in the build-up to this Saturday's Scottish National.

Blow one came when Paul Nicholls abandoned plans to run the mighty Denman. Blow two came when Lucinda Russell was forced to withdraw local hero Silver By Nature and blow three came when Jimmy Moffatt decided not to send his Cheltenham Festival winner Chief Dan George up the M6.

The absence of that hugely popular trio leaves a £200,000 handicap up for grabs for any brave stayer who puts it all together on the day, but I'm afraid to say the race looks unbelievably tough to solve from where I'm standing.

Meanus Dandy is an unexposed chaser with a bold jumping style who has been the subject of a gamble since Denman was withdrawn, while Poker De Sivola lines up fresh from a Cheltenham Festival success with stamina guaranteed.

However, I suspect I will be spreading the net wide here with a couple of small win and place bets and a handful of place lays.

Out The Black heads the back options for the simple reason that he ran a screamer for third in this race last year and returns on a 1lb lower mark and fresh from a lengthy winter break.

Watch the video of the way he jumped and travelled last year and I guarantee you will warm to him and anyone who backs him at massive prices with a view to trading out at much shorter could be in for an interesting ride.

That's Rhythm is tougher to assess than Out The Black after a poor run last time but he was travelling very well indeed when he came down at the 20th last year.

Now to a posse of potential place lays made up of Gone To Lunch, Faasel and Himalayan Trail.

Fans of last year's race will point to the fact that Gone To Lunch came home powerfully to run Hello Bud close 12 months ago and returns from an 8lb lower mark this time.

However, there is a reason for that. GTL just hasn't seemed to enjoy his racing recently. That makes him worth opposing at relatively tight odds in the place market, while Faasel is just too moody to be backed with confidence for an unforgiving race like this and Himalayan Trail is a real slugger who could find himself outpaced under much faster conditions than he has been used to recently.


Lady and Arcano to enhance their Classic claims at Newbury

It's Classic trials day at Newbury. Or, alternatively, a case of Friends Reunited.

The Dubai Duty Free Stakes (15:05) and the Greenham Stakes (15:40) both feature compelling rematches between some leading 1000 and 2000 Guineas hopes and opinions will be divided as to how they will work out.

Much will depend on whether the main players are fully primed after their winter breaks but, for what it's worth, I suspect that Lady Of The Desert and Arcano could be the two to focus on.

Lady Of The Desert finished a head behind Misheer when the pair filled the placings behind Special Duty in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket last October and many people will expect the placings to be confirmed over this extra furlong.

However, I'm prepared to give Lady Of The Desert another chance as she bids to emulate her dam by winning this race. For whatever reason, I suspect that LOTD wasn't quite at her very best in the Cheveley Park.

Perhaps she saw a bit too much daylight, but she certainly didn't find what was expected after travelling like a winner for a long way. Expect her to be covered up more by Kieren Fallon this time. And expect her to go very close indeed on the way to a Guineas tilt.

St Nicholas Abbey and Elusive Pimpernel continue to dominate the 2,000 Guineas market, but their grip on the first Classic of the season might not be so tight if Arcano or Canford Cliffs can come home clear in the Greenham.

Logic suggests there shouldn't be much between the two given that there was only half a length between them when they finished first and third in the Prix Morny at Deauville last summer.

But on this occasion I suspect the placings might be confirmed. Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon continue to insist that Canford Cliffs is out of the top drawer, but Arcano came from behind and ran him down over six at Deauville and this extra furlong looks all in his favour as he bids to maintain his unbeaten record.

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