Timeform Radio Tips: Will tipping Lady Willa to be a winner

Timeform Radio Tip / Will Hayler / 30 January 2012 / 2

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Two bets ahead of the action today, including a former Cheltenham Festival runner who could prove too classy for her opposition.

A five-runner novice handicap chase at Plumpton would rarely be regarded as a highlight, but today's 13.40 contest could turn out to be a cracker.

After Knock Boy's latest defeat at the hands of Watergate, an At The Races presenter described the horse as "a wrong'un" and claimed that he would never win a race. That incensed trainer Lynda Jewell who rang the television channel and ended up in a deeply uncomfortable confrontation with the presenter in question.

I'm certain that Jewell would enjoy nothing more than to win a race on his very next start with Knock Boy and it's too early in his career to pigeonhole him as a hopeless case, despite the alarming way he backpedalled in the closing stages last time out.

However, the handicapper has taken a chance by dropping Lady Willa so markedly in the weights that she is able to compete at this lowly 0-100 level.

Her last two efforts have been pretty derisory, but this is a lot softer and I'm hoping connections return to frontrunning tactics today.

It's less than a year since she was running at the Cheltenham Festival in the Fred Winter Hurdle. Okay, so she was well beaten there, but none of these rivals will ever dream of reaching anything near that level.

It does take a leap of faith to see her come back to winning form but today's contest represents a notable drop in class and if she can get into a rhythm in front and iron out the jumping mistakes, I can see her outgalloping these rivals. At bigger than 10-1, the price is right too.

Elsewhere, Sammy Spiderman will need every yard of the two-mile five-furlong trip if he is to get on top of four ordinary rivals in the 14.55 at Ayr.

He had the pace for this kind of trip three years ago, but these days needs a marathon slog to be seen to best effect. He was doing all of his best work in the home straight over half a mile further at the same track last time out.

Something Silver and Banoge ought to ensure that this race is run at a decent gallop and it's not impossible that he can plod past the opposition towards the finish. His last couple of runs have confirmed that he is ready to win off this mark if a suitably bad event can be found - and this could be it.

However it'll be a big surprise if he doesn't need plenty of pushing and shoving on his way there and a lay-to-back strategy at [3.4] is confidently recommended.

Recommended bets:

Back Lady Willa at [11.5] in the 13.40 at Plumpton
Lay Sammy Spiderman at [3.4] in the 14.55 at Ayr to back in-running at [6.0].

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Bill Clarke | 30 January 2012

I have just seen that Will " I dont like Mondy's" Hayler, kept up his fanatastic tipping with the two selections. One got beat and the other was to lay @ 3.4 and to back it in running @ 6.0................ only Will could have got this wrong. Horse reached 5.9 in running so another loser in the pot.
As I said last week Will, please dont go punting for a living.
James Pacheco, Betting.Betfair Editor | 31 January 2012

Bill, that has to be one of he harshest comments ever made on this site. To suggest a strategy of laying it off at 3.4 and re-backing at 6.0 only for it to touch 5.9 but not 6.0 before winning is just downright unlucky. Nothing wrong with the rationale at all. As for Lady Willa, it went off at around 11.0 and traded at around 1.25 before getting beat. Again unlucky. You do have the option of laying off bets in-running to be on the safe side, that is one of Betfair's biggest selling points after all.