Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Red Somerset, Punters' delight?

Timeform Radio Tip / Will Hayler / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Hayler expects Red Somerset to do the business at Wolverhampton (pictured)

Will Hayler likes the look of two runners on the Monday afternoon card...

Red Somerset's good record in claimers has taken a bit of a battering in recent weeks with two defeats that have dented his reputation a little.

But today's seller at Wolverhampton (15:20) represents an even easier task (and his first-ever drop to basement grade) and at odds-against Red Somerset looks a very fair bet to get back on the winning track.

In decent form in handicaps in the autumn, he was coming back from a three-month break when third behind Spinning Ridge at Kempton last month where his lack of peak fitness appeared to tell as he checked out having led the field to the furlong-pole.

It was again a little disappointing when he finished second to Munsarim in a mile claimer at Lingfield the following week, especially as he looked to have been given a good chance at the weights, but that was quite a hot contest, the winner and fourth-placed horses coming out and scoring again subsequently.

The calibre of rivals Red Somerset meets today is some way softer. Faithful Ruler can win in this grade but needs everything to fall right for him, while Marvo and Hail Tiberius are even less-frequent winners.

With winning form at Wolverhampton already in the book, there simply don't seem enough negatives to deter me from backing this proven Polytrack performer at [2.04].
I can't see Big Occasion doing anything other than trying to make all in the opening event at Carlisle (14:00) this afternoon and he looks a decent back-to-lay option.

A thorough stayer who won over a mile and three-quarters on the Flat for Aidan O'Brien, he is seen as a long-term staying chase prospect by trainer David Pipe and he ploughed through the mud to win over three miles at Chepstow in December, so Tom Scudamore is sure to want to make use of his stamina back over two and a half miles.

With his main rivals in the betting market, Crowning Jewel and South Leinster, both preferring to be ridden from off the pace, he could get his own way in front and will hopefully trade much shorter than his present odds of [7.6]. I'd be looking to lay him back at half that price.

Recommended bets
Back Red Somerset to win the 15.20 at Wolverhampton at [2.04]
Back Big Occasion to win the 14.00 at Carlisle at 7.6 and lay in-running at around [3.5]