Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Marc's Bold bid

Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 03 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rory's off to Brighton for today's bets

"Bold Marc is the only horse certain to press on in this contest."

Rory Delargy is the Timeform Radio pundit on Wednesday afternoon, with racing on the Flat at Brighton, Newcastle and Pontefract. He gravitates towards the Sussex venue for his best bet.

It's pretty much accepted that on a round course, a draw next to the rail is at least a minor advantage, and at certain tracks like Chester, a major boost to a horse's chances. There are, however, many scenarios where a draw bias is counter-intuitive.

I believe that 1m handicaps at Brighton provide one such anomaly due to the track's topography. The stats bear this out handsomely: Backing prominent racers drawn 12 or higher in big-field handicaps since 2006 gave nine winners from 41 bets while the same system for horses drawn four and lower produced five wins from 75 bets. The P/L for such bets is telling too. Backing outside stalls produced a profit to £100 level stakes at BSP of £11,550 as opposed to a loss for low-drawn runners of £2,660. I've chosen the last five years, but the pattern (unlike many systems) doesn't end there and I've crunched the numbers since the 90's with similar results.

The horse which best fits the bill is front-runner Bold Marc, drawn in stall 16 of 16. He's easily forgiven his latest run when going off too hard at Newmarket, a track which offers no hiding place for pace setters, and he's better judged on an impressive win at Haydock prior to that. He can't be described as well treated, but he's certainly honestly handicapped having won three times this season. He is the only horse certain to press on in this contest, and that should, at the very least, enable him to trade at a fraction of the price, and while the recommendation is a straight win bet, it should be possible to cover stakes with an in-running lay at a fraction of those odds.

Given the logic of the selection, I'll also be looking to lay the favourite Night Lily who is drawn in stall two. Since 1997, hold-up horses drawn four or lower in 12+ runner 1m handicaps at Brighton have a desperate strike-rate of just 6-152. A £100 bet on each of these at SP would have set you back a huge £11,450! The stats don't look better when looking at places, with only 22 from those 152 making the frame, including winners, and Night Lily is a cracking place lay at around [1.6].

Recommended Bets
Back Bold Marc in the 15:30 Brighton @ [23.0] (NAP)
Place Lay Night Lily in the 15:30 Brighton @ [1.65] or shorter.
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