Tipping / Stephen Molyneux / 03 February 2012 /

Timeform's Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you three SmartPlays for Meydan's UAE 1000 Guineas card, including a bet in the Grade 3 Al Shindagha Sprint...

A really tricky opening to the card at 11.00, which should at least ensure a reasonable price about Kavango, the five-year-old taken to build on the glimmer of promise he showed behind Musir on his reappearance. Kavango finished runner-up three times at the Carnival 12 months ago and, although on the face of things he looks high enough in the weights, it's one of those races where handicap marks may not actually count for much given how closely matched the 14 runners are. He wasn't really entitled to be involved in the Maktoum Challenge (Round 1) on his reappearance given his rating, but he actually shaped quite well in racing prominently for a long way before the lack of a recent run began to take its toll, early keenness not exactly helping either. He's fully entitled to come on for that and he should get the run of the race from stall one.

Captain Obvious will bid to continue the fine run of success enjoyed by Steven Burridge at the Carnival this year in the feature race at 13.25, his record currently standing at four winners from just five runners (IP Man should enhance that in the 11.35), but the value could lie elsewhere and principally with Alo Pura, who would have given Captain Obvious plenty to think about last time had she had any sort of luck. Alo Pura has rarely finished out of the first three throughout her whole career and is still getting better if anything, her win at Jebel Ali in December (when ahead of Mujaazef) certainly suggesting as much. There should be more pace in this race with both Krypton Factor and Addictive Dream expected to press on, and her draw in stall two compared to that of stall 11 for Captain Obvious could prove the difference come the finish.

The staying handicap at 14.00 sees the reappearance of Fox Hunt who looks sure to go well on his first start for Mahmood Al Zarooni, but preference is for Manjakani, who has been crying out for this sort of trip and will almost certainly represent better value. He progressed well for Andre Fabre last year and has carried on going the right way for this yard, finishing in the frame in handicaps at Meydan this year. He's essentially been made to look one paced on both occasions and although stall 13 is a slight concern, he should have enough time to secure a good position and can hopefully get into the first three at the very least.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Kavango to win and place in the 11.00
Back Alo Pura to win the 13.25
Back Manjakani to win and place in the 14.00

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