Tipping / Jamie Lynch / 03 October 2010 /

We were spoilt last year by Sea The Stars, but, whichever way you look at it, this renewal lacks a bit of ooh la la, as the French say. In an open year, all the field have some question mark or another over them, so let's look at the pros and cons of each big player.

• Positives: Has the right sounding name to be an Arc winner, and also has the right profile, being a three-year-old on a roll, winning Group 1 and 2 over this trip on last two starts, both times beating Planteur with bit to spare. Best of the French contingent.
• Negatives: All Aga Khan-owned horses are named like potential Arc winners, and being top of the mile-and-a-half crop in France is no great claim this year, his form as it stands still short of what it normally takes, even for an average renewal.

• Positives: Has the best form in the field, and, different to last year (when only sixth behind Sea The Stars), the Arc has been his target all along this time, given a mid-summer break after showing all his class in Group 1 Coronation Cup. Everything right for a big run.
• Negatives: The vibes - they haven't been good. Two nagging questions: why has he missed the obvious prep races, and why is the trainer also bringing Cape Blanco to the party when for so long Fame And Glory was his one and only?

• Positives: Top-class form. Spanked Workforce in the Dante and Rip Van Winkle in the Irish Champion, in between which he also won the Irish Derby and chased home (if that's the right phrase for eleven lengths) the untouchable Harbinger in the King George.
• Negatives: It's been a hard campaign for him, on the go since May, and coming here is something of an afterthought. Also, it might sound odd saying this about an Irish Derby winner, but there's a slight stamina doubt, as the times he's been most impressive have come at a mile and a quarter.

• Positives: Cast your mind back to June 5th. Wow. Remember too that, from a yard which knows exactly what it has got, Workforce was a strong favourite over Harbinger for the King George, and there were excuses for that flop, chiefly that Epsom took a lot out of him. The break since should have done him the power of good.
• Negatives: Was the Derby performance all it seemed at the time? Furthermore, the will-he-won't-he saga about his Arc participation is hardly a vote of confidence.

• Positives: Closely matched with Behkabad, ahead of him in the French Derby and right behind in second the last twice. Straightforward, so won't mind if this turns tactical.
• Negatives: If we're sceptical about Behkabad's class, and we are, then same goes for Planteur, who hasn't his regular rival's scope for more improvement, either.

• Positives: Fast learner and improver. Not seen before May, but within six weeks she'd won two Group 1s including French Oaks. Warmed up for Arc with eye-catching third to Midday on 'trials' day, when suggesting this distance would suit after all.
• Negatives: None regards her profile, but, as with the colts, we're querying the level of the leading fillies over in France, and, on Timeform ratings, she has to do a lot more in this league. Owner's retained rider on board Behkabad.

• Positives: A history of near-misses in a race that has brought out the best of him over the years.
• Negatives: If he hasn't won it before, he's not going to win it now, aged 7 and not the force of old.

• Positives: The top dog in Japan, and, after break and shipment, promising step towards his big European assignment when second in Prix Foy over Arc course and distance last month.
• Negatives: The Foy was the slowest of the three trials, won by British second-rater Duncan, and Nakayama Festa isn't so good as previous Japanese challengers El Condor Pasa (second in 1999 for same trainer) and Deep Impact (third, 2006).

• Positives: Looked a potential worldbeater when completing French Guineas/Derby double, in latter beating Planteur and Behkabad. Says a lot that Andre Fabre, the winningmost trainer in Arc history, has decided to supplement him at a late stage.
• Negatives: Bubble burstage in recent months, twice a big let-down, and what's more he's a doubtful stayer.

Part of the reason this Arc may not take so much winning is the apparent fragilities amongst the French quota, Behkabad the best of them, but he's nothing special on form nor visual impressions. The negatives to do with Fame And Glory and Workforce are largely conjecture, and that pair boast the most compelling form claims. Worforce has done it only once, however, whereas Fame And Glory has won four Group 1s, on all types of ground, and the prospect of testing conditions on Sunday makes him the selection; he really should be favourite, yet he's available at [6.40] currently.

Get a view on some of the other Group 1s on Arc day, as well as in-depth analysis on the big races at Newmarket's Cambridgeshire meeting, plus an interview with Luca Cumani; it's all in the latest edition of Timeform's Horses to Follow Extra.

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