Simon Rowlands: Pick6 selections for Saratoga

Tipping / Simon Rowlands / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Who will be on your pick 6 ticket for Saratoga?

"The American Oaks is the penultimate leg in what promises to be a heavily punted and potentially very remunerative Pick 6."

Our blogger Simion Rowlands gives you his pick6 selections for the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks meeting at Saratoga on Saturday night...

Punters looking for some high-quality racing to bet on after the Betfair King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot is over on Saturday will not have long to wait.

As ever, there are some valuable prizes on offer 'across the pond' at the weekend, with pride of place going to the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga, due off at 22:45 British time.

The race is the centre leg of the prestigious 'Triple Tiara' of New York State three-year-old fillies' races and has attracted a small but select field of five.

As an indication of both the quality and the tightness of the contest, all five fillies are rated between 116 and 121 by Timeform. These are seriously good racehorses, in other words, the type that could be heading a market or two against the best that Europe can offer come Breeders' Cup time in November.

Plum Pretty has a Kentucky Oaks win to her name, Royal Delta a Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Buster's Ready a Mother Goose Stakes, but arguably best of them all is It's Tricky, who landed the first leg of the Triple Tiara - the TVG Acorn Stakes - at Belmont last time out.

The second that day, Turbulent Descent, had lost only once previously and is firmly established as a high-class filly. The distant third, Her Smile, won the Grade 1 Prioress next time out. What's more, the time was good.

It's Tricky's only defeat in five runs came when she clearly wasn't herself, and she looks the one to beat again here. Plum Pretty and Royal Delta may lack a bit of tactical speed in this small field, and the one to chase It's Tricky home could be Buster's Ready, who seems to have improved since Royal Delta beat her a couple of starts back.

The American Oaks is the penultimate leg in what promises to be a heavily punted and potentially very remunerative Pick 6. This bet, which is available through the Tote button on Betfair markets, requires punters to get the winners of races 6 to 11 inclusive.

With double-figure fields declared for the other legs, the American Oaks may be the best chance to get a 'single' and reduce the number of lines. The number of possible winning combinations approaches two million, so a bit of pruning is necessary!

There is an interesting runner in the first leg (race 6), due off at 8:35. Number 4 Rubber Duck will be unfamiliar to most American punters, but his form in Germany, including in Group company and on turf at this trip, is useful and apparently better than that of his rivals. Number 1 Capital Market looks marginally the best of the rest.

Number 8 Backdown has the best public form of those in leg two, but his rivals include the unraced Sheikh Mohammed-owned Fact (number 1), who has caught the eye of work-watchers.

Number 9 Strikealinethruit has as good form as any in leg three, but he's not progressing in the way that number 10 Bazinga has been doing. The latter shapes as if the longer trip will prove within his scope.

There are doubts concerning a number of those in leg four on suitability to surface or fitness. The percentage play looks to be to include number 3 Dominant Jeannes and number 5 Gathering Cloud in your calculations.

If you get as far as the final leg with a line or lines still running you will have the option of taking out some insurance on Betfair by laying your selection(s) or backing some or all of the others. You should at least have a decent chance of collecting if you have included number 1a Play It Smart and number 5 Binks Forest in the first place.

Pick Six permutation guide:

Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 1, 8
Leg Three: 9, 10
Leg Four: 3, 5
Leg Five: 5
Leg Six: 1a, 5
2*2*2*2*1*2 = 32 bets (minimum stake per line of $2)

Remember, you can watch all the action from Saratoga for free on Betfair Live Video.