Tipping / Simon Rowlands / 11 June 2011 / 1

Our blogger considers some of the elements that may point you to the winner in Saturday's last leg of The US Triple Crown...

Saturday sees the final leg of the US Triple Crown, The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in New York. There will, however, be no Triple Crown winner once more this year, after Animal Kingdom, successful in leg one (The Kentucky Derby), succumbed to Shackleford in leg two (The Preakness Stakes).

It is now 33 years - and counting - since the three races were won by one horse, in that case Affirmed.

As each year goes by, with more hopes dashed, the Triple Crown seems further and further out of reach. So much so, that it is worth investigating whether even tackling - let alone winning - three such varied races in little more than a month is asking too much of a horse.

This issue is highly pertinent again this year, as Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, along with The Kentucky Derby third Mucho Macho Man, are the only ones in a Belmont field of twelve set to run in all three.

The evidence is mixed, but mostly favourable, especially among those of superior ability. Of the ten horses this century to have won one or both of the first two legs and gone onto the third, two won the Belmont, two were second and three were third.

Timeform ratings show that, as a group, they performed at least as well compared to expectation as other horses that contested the Belmont.

Each horse is different, as those who backed Big Brown (pulled up in The Belmont in 2008 after winning the first two legs) know too well. But I am prepared to bet that it won't be too many hard races in a short space of time that will be the undoing of Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.

The other big issue to be resolved where The Belmont is concerned is stamina. The first two legs of The Triple Crown are run at ten furlongs and nine-and-a-half furlongs respectively. The twelve furlongs of The Belmont takes us into marathon territory by US standards.

Animal Kingdom is by a miler but out of a stoutly-bred mare who stayed ten furlongs very well. Shackleford is a half-brother to a couple of smart mile/mile-and-a-quarter types but is by a sire who might have been best at short of a mile. Additionally, Animal Kingdom runs like a horse likely to stay The Belmont trip, whereas Shackleford arguably does not.

There is little between Animal Kingdom and Shackleford on known form, but the longer trip of The Belmont seems to tip the scales in the former's favour.

The horses likeliest to improve for the longer distance - and who are therefore interesting among those at bigger prices in my view - are Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed and Stay Thirsty.

Master of Hounds, an encouraging fifth in The Kentucky Derby, is by a sire who gets plenty of horses that stay well enough in Europe and his stoutly-bred dam stayed The Belmont trip. Brilliant Speed's sire gets horses that stay well and his dam is a daughter of a sister to a Belmont winner herself. Stay Thirsty's dam won at The Belmont distance and has bred a second in the race already.

The Kentucky Derby second and third, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man, look to be doubtful stayers. It should be remembered that the Churchill Downs race was run at a pace that did not test stamina fully.

And that - the likely pace - is one other factor to consider for Saturday's race. Only one of the dozen declared has habitually raced up with the pace, and that horse is Shackleford. While stamina may be the horse's Achilles Heel, it is entirely possible that he will get an easy time of things at or near the front and manage to conserve vital energy as a result.

A shortage of pace could also mean that an inside draw for Master of Hounds will not be the disadvantage it usually is, providing his jockey shows enterprise.

The 2011 Belmont Stakes is another intriguing puzzle in what has been a head-scratcher of a Classic season, in which the winners of the first two legs went off at 20.9/1 and 12.6/1. But, in summary, I see Animal Kingdom as best equipped for the task, with Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed and Shackleford, in that order, best of the rest.

Click here to download your free Timeform racecard for the Belmont Stakes
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You can follow the action at Belmont Park on Saturday, including several top-class supporting races, with Gina Bryce and James Willoughby on Timeform Radio. The big race itself is due off at 23:35 BST.

Click HERE for the latest Belmont Stakes odds.

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1. Jonathan da Silva | 09 June 2011

   Animal Kingdom goes close then really it's arguably the race scenario (luck) that prevents him being a triple crown winner. The triple crown is still attainable.

   Albeit the 2 weeks to the Preakness for horses already trialled to be allowed in the Kentucky Derby could be tweaked.

   Whether racing should continue to promote races for immature 3yos as its peak of attainment is more of an issue for me.

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