Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Time to Think straight

Tipping / Jamie Lynch / 02 October 2011 / 4 Comments

Jamie has a strong fancy in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

"Make no mistake, So You Think is the horse to beat. Not only does he have the best CV, but he also has the best form."

Timeform's Flat Editor Jamie Lynch brings you his unique take on Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe...

The World Championships starts here. To a large extent, the domestic hierarchy in each country has already been established by now, and from this point in the year racing takes on an extra dimension - the global dimension. National renown is all good and well, but worldwide fame is where it's really at; just ask Simon Cowell or Michael Flatley or Ernst Blofeld. To come we've got the revamped Champions Day in Britain, the Breeders' Cup in America, the Melbourne Cup in Australia, followed by Far East festival and, after the turn of the year, the Dubai Carnival, but first up is France.

The beauty of the French language is that anything, anything, sounds good. Even the worst news would be palatable if transmitted in French. Votre argent a été mis dans un fonds de haie grec (your money has been invested into a Greek hedge fund). Un revers mineur pour Frankel signifie qu'il ne courra pas de nouveau (a minor setback for Frankel means he won't race again). Votre place sur l'avion est à côté de Liam Gallagher (you can work that one out).

Even American caller Scott Bierne likes to start his commentaries with a bit of Gallic flair - ils sont partis. The racename itself, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, rolls off the tongue, and compared to any meeting in the world Arc weekend at Longchamp takes some beating. Yes, the French certainly know how to do things properly, and that includes planning to win their own big race. You can bet your bottom euro that from the moment she crossed the line in third, and an unlucky third at that, in the 2010 Arc, Sarafina was going to be trained to the second let alone the minute to go two better this time.

Those two who bettered her last year, Workforce and Nakayama Festa, are both here again, but neither has had the ideal preparation. Nakayama Festa was on the sidelines for ten months prior to his return in the Prix Foy, when last of four, while the last time we saw Workforce was when he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the King George in July, hanging badly, albeit after struck into, and you have to take notice of connections' concerns over the quickening conditions, despite his record-breaking Derby win on fast ground suggesting otherwise.

On the other hand, everything has gone like clockwork for Sarafina. Working backwards from this point, which you'd guess has been her trainer's strategy all along, Sarafina came through her trial, the aforementioned Prix Foy, with plenty up her sleeve, and that followed back-to-back wins at Saint-Cloud including a Group 1. Primed, ready and able, Sarafina is going to run the race of her life on Sunday, but will that be enough against one of the established top horses in the world?

Step forward So You Think. On the international fame scale, So You Think scores higher than anything else in the Arc line-up. Born in New Zealand, he made his name in Australia before a multi-million pound transfer to Ireland at the start of 2011, and there's been no stopping him there since, besides showing his class in Britain by defeating Workforce in the Eclipse.

Cosmopolitan to say the least. It takes something special to do what he has done, and the next nation in for a treat is France, where So You Think will be tackling a longer distance than he has so far in Europe, but stepping up to a mile and a half is no issue whatsoever for a horse who put up an exceptional handicapping performance when third under top weight in the two-mile Melbourne Cup last November.

Okay, so the draw in 14 isn't ideal for him, but the same can be said for next-door neighbour Sarafina, and whereas she is knocking on the door of greatness, So You Think is already through and and ensconced in the plush lounge.

L'offre du reste temps court (giving the rest short shrift), Galikova is no Goldikova despite being a sound-a-like and blood relative, Meandre is no Peintre Celebre nor any other of Andre Fabre's hundred Arc winners, Snow Fairy is no Ouija Board, Reliable Man struggles to live up to his name when the ground is fast, and Masked Marvel will be too slow for all this. Cue a five-way photo finish between this lot.

Make no mistake, So You Think is the horse to beat. Not only does he have the best CV, but he also has the best form. As ever in the Arc, and as Sarafina found out last year, tactics and traffic will inevitably have some influence on the outcome, but So You Think has the cruising speed to get him out of most spots, plus he has what the French might call Le X Facteur. To all intents and purposes So You Think is already a world champion. The World Championships starts here.

Recommendation

Back So You Think in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Timeform Race Cards for Arc Sunday are available now from timeform.com

Comments (4)

1. Sam Johnson | 30 September 2011

   So You Think will be lucky to finish 4th in the Arc. He was sweating buckets after his ICS win, while going all out to hold off a hard charging Snow Fairy - she would have caught him in another 50 yards or so. This horse is overrated.

2. Michele | 01 October 2011

   Awesome

3. Anonymous | 02 October 2011

   So You Think is a proven champion of his era and the horse to beat in what ever he is presented in. The southern hemisphere knows what the northern is still finding out. A magnificent individual in this magnificent race it will only be bad luck that beats him. Under rate him at your peril.

4. Anonymous | 02 October 2011

   Snow Fairy will run a big race ...Form is temporary class is permanent...the Fairy will fly come on!! Happy Days :-)