Tipping / Wayne Bailey / 22 May 2009 /

Aidan O'Brien attempts to win his ninth consecutive Irish classic on Saturday, but Brian Meehan's Delegator looks the value bet at [4.0]. Meanwhile Cuis Ghaire can be taken on this Sunday as the ground conditions wont suit writes Wayne Bailey...

As I write this article on Friday evening, the going description for the Curragh is described as heavy - which is partly the reason why Mastercraftsman has been pushed to the top of the Irish 2,000 Guineas market on Betfair. Indeed, the colt showed that he's able for an old slog when winning the National Stakes at this venue in very testing conditions back in September. He's a top class horse, there's no doubt about it and if O'Brien wins the race, he'll have taken nine Irish classics in a row - an incredible achievement. However, I've watched the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas a number of times now, and the more I look at it, the more convinced I've become that Delegator didn't like the ground. In typical fashion, Spencer was late letting him go but managed to take the lead at one point. Unfortunately, Delegator hung left and ended up in second place with Mastercraftsman back in fifth.

The big question is whether Delegator will handle heavy ground, but at [4.0], I'm going to take a chance on him doing so. In fact, if the layers keep pushing, he'll probably be an even bigger price come race time. He ran reasonably well on good-to-soft when runner up in his debut back in August and judging by his 2,000 Guineas race, softer ground may well be what the doctor ordered. How soft he likes it remains to be seen however.

Yes, there is guesswork involved but those that say he won't like the ground (and are willing to lay on that basis) are playing the guessing game too.

It's been an expensive business opposing John Oxx lately, a trainer who has actually shown a 10pts profit if blindly followed in 2009 thus far - and his representative Rayeni has claims. He's unbeaten in two starts but we haven't seen him since last season so I'd rather take a watching brief for now. Kevin Prendergast's Recharge is also one to watch, but if I've read the formbook properly, Delegator is still the one to take all the beating and he's got to be a back bet at that price.

***

One horse that definitely doesn't like soft ground is the Jim Bolger trained Cuis Ghaire, so it's no surprise to see a big drift on Betfair for Sunday's Irish 1,000 Guineas. I'm a big fan of this horse but I watched her have a horrible time at my local track (Leopardstown) back in August when trying to run in the mud and I wouldn't be at all surprised if she ends up withdrawn. At this point, she's trading around [7.0] and I'd be keen to lay at that price.

Again is proving a popular choice with punters but it's tricky for horses making their seasonal reappearance to win this race and on that basis, I'd rather not get involved.

The stand out horse for me is Super Sleuth, another Brian Meehan trained animal that was only supplemented late on Tuesday. She ran a big race when coming third in the Newmarket equivalent, one place behind Cuis Ghaire - but with that horse likely to struggle and no Ghanaati to contend with, [6.0] looks quite generous. She's a versatile sort that can handle varied conditions and I'd expect a bold run on Sunday.

Advice:
Back Delegator to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas
Back Super Sleuth to win and place in the Irish 1,000 Guineas

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: