In-Play / Neil Munro / 10 April 2012 /

Knowing which horses trade at bigger prices in-running before winning is as important as knowing which offer value pre-race in the days of Bertfair. Neil Munro explains all...

This week I want to highlight a few horses that tend to trade big in the race when they win. This is normally because they are hold-up performers who are delivered late or they get outpaced early doors before staying on late. Although my recommendation is to back these horses when conditions are right, there is a riskier play where you lay the horse pre-race and back in the run at higher odds to get a green book. But overall if you back these horses at double BSP (and maybe even some really cheeky high offers) for each run, you should make money.

Mayoman

Now trained by David O'Meara the seven year old sprinter won off his highest ever mark on his seasonal reappearance. Mayoman has a 25% win ratio which improves to around 40% over five furlongs so he knows how to win. And although adaptable in running style he does tend to get outpaced at times and thus trade bigger in the run. In six of his nine wins he has traded more than double his BSP with his biggest trade being 100, having gone off BSP of [8.65].

Back Mayoman both pre-race at BSP and then in the run at double BSP if conditions look right.

Nazreef

We may not see Hughie Morrison's five year old during the turf season as his best form has come on the All Weather. Seven of his eight wins have come on artificial surfaces so it will be interesting to see if connections try a turf campaign. Nazreef tends to keep finding more than expected which means he trades bigger in the run. In fact, on six of his eight wins he has traded at more than double the BSP.

Back Nazreef both pre-race at BSP and then in the run at double BSP if conditions look right.

Alben Star

Richard Fahey's four year old could be in the top ranks of the sprinters by the end of this flat season having won a handicap off a mark of 92 over the All Weather winter. Connections like to hold him off the pace and produce him late which leads to him trading bigger in the run. Alben Star has already traded [330] in-running, having gone off [5.0] BSP in one of the three times he has traded more than double BSP out of his four wins. We saw him recently over seven furlongs but I think he is best coming off a strong pace over six furlongs.

Back Alben Star over six furlongs in the run at double BSP.

Qaraaba

Seamus Durack's five year old has started the 2012 flat season with a bang putting together back to back wins off marks of 76 and 81. Formerly with John Dunlop, Qaraaba tends to travel out the back and just needs a little bit of luck to get to the front on the line. With the field position he has traded more than double his BSP three times out of four wins. He has some low trades as well when delivered late and not quite getting there.

Back Qaraaba both pre-race at BSP and then in the run at double BSP if conditions look right.

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