In Play Betting: Al's upward progression to continue at Ascot

In-Play / Graham Cunningham / 20 January 2012 /

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Al Ferof in action

"He should get a true gallop to run at here - which will aid his cause - and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him to win at Ascot along with taking a little of the [7.6] about him winning the Arkle at Cheltenham in March."

One of them boasts a 29 per cent strike rate, the other is hobbling along at a mere 24. Henderson and Nicholls are again the two to focus on in this weekend's feature event and Racing UK's Graham Cunningham feels Nicholls could have the edge at Ascot

Al Ferof the value to put Rainbow in the shade
These words might just come back to haunt me, but whittling down the field for Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase at 15:10 to a manageable short list doesn't look too difficult.

I'm So Lucky and Oiseau de Nuit simply shouldn't be good enough, while Forpadydeplasterer has been brittle in top company for some while now and although Somersby ran a blinder when pipped by Master Minded in this race last year he is no good thing to do so again after enduring a severe workout when fourth in Kauto Star's latest King George win.

Gauvain's decisive defeat of Somersby in Huntingdon's Peterborough Chase gives him definite place potential, but the market looks to have found the right three at the top of the market in Al Ferof, Finians Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking and I prefer them in that order.

Evidence from Kempton last time suggests there is hardly anything between Finians Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, but that was a slowly-run race in which both horses almost hit the deck four out and I expect the former to confirm and extend superiority over the latter this time.

However, in Al Ferof both Kempton principals face a powerful novice with a tremendous strike rate and scope for considerable further improvement after two highly encouraging chase wins this winter.

The first came at Cheltenham in November, where Al Ferof pasted the subsequent good handicap winner Astracad.

And the second came in Grade 1 company at Sandown last month, where he came clear with For Non Stop and always looked likely to hold on despite the runner-up's tenacity.

Granted, a repeat of that Sandown form probably wouldn't be good enough against these more seasoned rivals, but Al Ferof jumps soundly and continues to impress as a high-class chaser in the making.

He should get a true gallop to run at here - which will aid his cause - and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him to win this along with taking a little of the [7.6] about him winning the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

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Pearly can open the gates if allowed to stride on again
This is the day last year when I burned my fingers badly by lumping on Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase card to go ahead at [1.3] or thereabouts only to find that frost covers don't always do the job they are meant to.

Twelve months on and rain is the potential headache on Merseyside and, even if Saturday's card survives an 8am inspection, the recent deluge means that only the most hardy sluggers will come to the fore.

In truth, betting on which horse will handle a slugfest on bottomless ground best has never been my cup of tea, but if racing does go ahead then Pearlysteps looks a suitable back-to-lay candidate in the feature event at 15:30.

In an open race this gelding has several good things going for him.

First, his trainer Henry Daly has his horses in good form at present; second, he's a proven stayer who handles deep ground very well indeed; third, he's in good form having run a blinder until falling at the final fence on similarly testing ground here before Christmas; and fourth, Pearlysteps has been treated fairly having been left on the same mark of 140 by the BHA handicapper.

Pearlysteps seemed well served by being allowed to stride on that day and there was much to like about the way he got the vast majority of his rivals in trouble when kicking clear on the home turn.

Similar tactics look the order of the day again here and it all adds up to the sort of scenario which could see him trade much shorter than the current [6.0] and bigger available on Betfair.

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Simonsig the early Supreme value
Last but by no means least this week, another swift look at the Cheltenham markets.

It's rarely my style to delve too deeply into the ante-post books until the Festival is much nearer, but every time I look at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle market I'm tempted by Nicky Henderson's Simonsig.

Granted, the fact that Henderson has a posse of other possibles for the Festival curtain raiser - notably Darlan, Tetlami and Captain Conan - does tend to complicate matters slightly.

However, Simonsig already has form to compare favourably with the best novices seen this winter and the way he tanked along when second to the division leader Fingal Bay over 2m4f at Sandown last month was striking to say the least.

It's easy to think that a horse with such an easy going style could be very well suited indeed by a strongly-run two miles on spring ground at Cheltenham.

And it's equally easy to think that the [13.0] currently available about Simonsig for the Supreme Novices' could look very fair value indeed by the time that Henderson sorts the wheat from the chaff among his Festival force.

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