Graham Cunningham's In-running Blog: Saturday at Ascot

In-Play / Graham Cunningham / 16 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ascot is set for an exciting afternoon of racing

"Big Buck's will divide opinion between those who feel that taking [1.26] about him winning the Long Walk Hurdle at 14:30 is like finding money in the street and those who get lured in by the big prices about his main rivals."

It's over three years since Big Buck's was beaten and well over two years since he even started odds against in a race. Saturday's Long Walk Hurdle ought to be another cakewalk in theory, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham hasn't quite given up on the prospect of getting the big black gelding beaten. He outlines his plans in his weekly in running blog.

The first point to make about Ascot this Saturday is that we need to keep fingers crossed that the card survives the threat of frost.

The second point is that, based on the evidence of Friday's card, the ground is bound to be very holding again even if an 8am inspection gives the green light.

The third point is that strong bets don't look easy to find.

As ever, Big Buck's will divide opinion between those who feel that taking [1.26] about him winning the Long Walk Hurdle at 14:30 is like finding money in the street and those who get lured in by the big prices about his main rivals.

And, at the risk of being labelled a glutton for punishment I suspect I'll be in the latter group - again. I could point out that this is the first time Big Buck's has gone right handed in Britain as a reason for opposing him, but that really shouldn't bother him too much.

Indeed, anyone opposing the champ is effectively backing him to under perform for no apparent reason. It probably won't happen, but even Homer nods and if he does in this instance then Dynaste and Sparky May might just offer a little back to lay potential.

Dynaste's rampant handicap success on Betfair Chase day suggests he's improving fast. and I would love to see Connor O'Farrell repeat his Haydock tactics by letting rip on the final bend with the aim of opening up a long lead. Things might just get interesting if he does, while Sparky May was blown away by Big Buck's on her Newbury reappearance but has the potential to trade at a good deal shorter than the current Betfair quotes of [30.0] and bigger back over the course and distance which marked her career best performance back in January.

Whichever way you slice the Ladbroke (15:35) it ends up as a wide open handicap with any number of possible winners.

Prospect Wells fully deserves to be trading as favourite and his jumping has come on a treat in his last two starts, while some will feel Brampour is ahead of the handicapper based on his fine third in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last week.

However, Viva Colonia has done me more than one good back to lay turn in the past and he might well serve up another in a race which should suit his stalking style perfectly.

I'm still not quite sure what caused David O'Meara's gelding to get so far off the pace under Timmy Murphy in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. But I am sure that he came up the hill in great style to finish fifth and, with Denis O'Regan back aboard today, he appeals as a live outsider with more than enough ability to catch the eye of the in running backers.

The other handicaps on the Ascot card look very tough indeed. Anyone intending to get stuck into the 13:25 would be well advised to factor in the possibility of a fierce gallop thanks to Lancetto, King Edmund, Passato and Fix The Rib.