In-Play / Graham Cunningham / 23 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

The presents are wrapped, the weather is set fair and the racing menu is irresistible with the three best chasers around locked and loaded for Monday's King George at Kempton. The head says Long Run, the heart says Kauto, but the value could lie in a longshot as RUK analyst Graham Cunningham delivers part one of his Christmas in-running blog.

Diamond can shine if the King George big guns backfire

The problem with pure form based bets is that the horse in question tends to be the price that he or she ought to be. And the problem with "feel" bets is that the feeling behind them can prove fatally flawed. So what's the best course of action when Long Run, Kauto Star and Master Minded line up for a compelling King George at Kempton this Boxing Day?

In short, I'm following my gut feeling that Diamond Harry can shake up the big three and backing him at around [20.0] on Betfair with a view to laying off at [6.0] in running.

Ignoring the market leaders could prove folly, but I can't see too much value in last year's winner Long Run at [2.3] given the mistakes he made when second to Kauto Star in Haydock's Betfair Chase on his reappearance and, although Master Minded has drifted to an attractive [8.0] and bigger, I'm not sure I have enough confidence in him on his debut at three miles to put him up as the main bet.

Now to the mighty Kauto Star, who already has four King George wins on his dance card and showed there is ample life in the old dog just days short of his 12th birthday when pulling out just too much for Long Run at Haydock.

On that evidence, I completely understand the sustained move for the old king, but the fact that Paul Nicholls stressed that Kauto was "mega fit" for Haydock and that "today was his Gold Cup' makes me wonder whether this incredible chaser can peak again in an even deeper contest just five weeks later.

If he does then we could witness a true Christmas spectacular. But if the main fancies don't deliver their very best then the way is open for something to go close at a big price and Diamond Harry certainly shouldn't be underestimated at his current long odds.

Granted, he finished 18 lengths behind Kauto and ten behind Long Run at Haydock and this will be the first time he's ever raced right handed at the age of eight.

However, I remain confident that Diamond Harry's commanding win in last year's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury marked him out as a potential Grade 1 chaser. He ran a fair bit better than the bare result suggests at Haydock, travelling powerfully upsides Kauto for a long way on his first run for a year then just nudged out once clearly held.

In-running regulars will be well aware that Diamond Harry traded all the way down to [2.26] in running at Haydock and there is little doubt he has the ability to move powerfully again in this smallish field if he handles the switch to galloping right handed.

In truth, I simply don't know whether he's good enough to sustain that speed when the big guns let rip on the final circuit. But I do know that I'm prepared to secure a bit of [20.0] - and probably a bit of [4.0] or bigger for a place - in the belief that Diamond Harry might well be a good deal shorter under the brilliant Barry Geraghty on the final turn for home.

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Hardy Over isn't for Turning in round three against Binocular

Overturn and Grands Crus are the other two horses to follow on King George day and the case for both horses is simple enough. In short, this pair might well be just the best horses in the Christmas Hurdle at 14:35 and the Feltham Chase at 14:00.

Granted, Binocular beat Overturn decisively in this race last season but whether he packs the same finishing punch nowadays is questionable given that he's been beaten three times from four runs since including when second to Overturn in Newcastle's Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his reappearance.

By contrast, Overturn returns to Kempton better than ever and is standing up to aggressive campaigning superbly judged on his fine second to the fast-improving Grandouet in Cheltenham's International Hurdle.

Dictating in smallish fields is made for Overturn and he ought to have no trouble setting the pace that suits him here. Rock On Ruby looks dangerous after posting a clear career best off a BHA mark of 145 in a race that looks very solid form at Newbury, but Overturn is good enough to win this now and even if he gets reeled in from the last the chances are he will have traded at a short enough price for his followers to save their stake.

Don't be surprised if the winner of the Feltham Chase goes on to be a potential Gold Cup contender. And don't be surprised if that horse is Grands Crus.

This is the acid test for David Pipe's stable star as Silviniaco Conti jumped with real accuracy when bolting up at Wincanton and Bob's Worth confirmed that he is a real terrier in a fight when wearing down Cue Card at Newbury.

However, Grands Crus was the best hurdler of this trio and he also boasts the best chase form based on two thoroughly convincing wins at Cheltenham and Newbury.

In-running players will be well aware this shapes up to be a searching test thanks to the presence of notable front runners like Mr Moonshine and Teaforthree. That will suit Grands Crus ideally and I reckon he's best backed outright with no attempt to trade out in the run.

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Reveley isn't Always Right.....but he might be this time

One of the more puzzling news stories of Christmas week came when it emerged that James Reveley has passed up the chance to ride Diamond Harry in the King George in order to maintain his blossoming partnership with Always Right in Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase at 13:45.

It's a bold call, right enough, but it's understandable in some ways as Always Right is a likeable improver who holds definite back to lay potential in a valuable handicap featuring any number of dangerous rivals.

Admittedly, only another career best will do if Always Right is to defy the 8lb hike imposed for his latest success in a handicap at Kelso three weeks ago.

However, it's well worth taking a look at the video of that race. Always Right breezed clear of useful rivals on the final bend that day and showed plenty of spirit to hold on when pressed on the long run-in.

In short, he gave the strong impression that he's still very much on the up. And if he travels as well here as he did at Kelso then the in play backers will be shortening his price up appreciably on the final circuit.

Recommended Bets
Back Grands Crus in Kempton's 14:00
Back Overturn in Kempton's 14:35 and lay off at [1.5] in running
Back Diamond Harry in Kempton's 15.10 and lay off at [6.0] in running
Back Diamond Harry for a place in Kempton's 15:10
Back Always Right in Wetherby's 13:45 and lay off at [3.0] in running

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