Graham Cunningham's In-running Blog: Tuesday at Chepstow

In-Play / Graham Cunningham / 26 December 2011 /

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Can Graham pick a winner on Tuesday at Chepstow?

"The case for opposing Cannington Brook in the place market relates more to his physical readiness than his actual ability."

Well, how do you follow that? Kauto Star, Grands Crus and Binocular served up an unforgettable Christmas feast at Kempton on Boxing Day, but there is a fine Welsh National card in prospect at Chepstow on Tuesday and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been studying it with a view to pinpointing the best in running angles.

Has any horse combined metronomic galloping with deadly accurate jumping in the way Kauto Star did when drawing the sting from Long Run and company in Monday's King George?

It's highly likely we saw one of the king's heirs apparent based on the way Grands Crus breezed through the Feltham Chase, but now's the time to switch the focus to Chepstow for a card where the ability to slog through very demanding ground will be paramount.

The other crucial point relating to the Welsh National at 14:10 is that the presence of a posse of hard knocking front runners will make things very lively on the front end.

Giles Cross, Carruthers, Viking Blond and As De Fer are all very comfortable helping force the pace, so tactics could play a very significant role here, but my angle in on the race is to side with Carruthers and Galaxy Rock as back-to-lay candidates with a small place lay of Cannington Brook thrown in for good measure.

Galaxy Rock is undoubtedly one of the most progressive members of this field and the style and substance of his fluent Cheltenham success in November were hard to fault.

An 11lb hike clearly makes life harder, but the way that Galaxy Rock cruised through that Cheltenham race was striking and if he finds a similar rhythm on this more testing ground (which he does seem to handle) then it's easy to see him running a blinder and trading accordingly.

It's possible I've missed the boat as regards Carruthers winning a really big one, following his gutsy Hennessy success at Newbury, but look a little closer and the case for another bold effort is easy enough to make.

First, Carruthers certainly hasn't been hard done by in being raised just 6lb for his Hennessy win. And second, this is a horse with a smashing record on very deep ground. Stamina could be an issue in the final two furlongs, but Carruthers showed at Newbury that he doesn't have to dominate nowadays and I suspect he has more than enough ability to trade much shorter than his current price in running.

The case for opposing Cannington Brook in the place market relates more to his physical readiness than his actual ability.

Put simply, Colin Tizzard's gelding was out on his feet when scrambling home on desperate ground at Haydock ten days ago. He'll need to be a very tough cookie to peak again so soon after that and I'm happy to oppose him for a place on that basis.

The rest of the Chepstow card throws up mixed fare from an in running perspective.

It's hard to get a strong angle on the opener at 12:30, though Alfie Spinner looks bound to be tough to beat, while Strategic Approach has been off the course for 378 days but could be intriguing at a price in the 13:00 given that he's only 2lb higher than when pipped in this race two years ago.

However, the other two horses who catch the eye from a back to lay perspective this Tuesday are Plein Pouvoir in the 13:30 and Hollow Tree in the 14:45.

Plein Pouvoir always makes more appeal as a back to lay horse than a straight win option - as he doesn't always find what seems likely off the bit - but he's a bold jumper and absolutely bolted up over this course and distance on similarly deep ground last winter.

He shaped as if coming to hand when fourth here on his recent start and gets plenty of weight from some of his better fancied rivals, while Hollow Tree was a likeable stayer on the Flat and looks all set to make a major impact in the 14:45 having made a similarly positive impression from three runs over hurdles this winter.

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