Horseracing Betting: Newmarket review

Tipping / Robin Keck / 17 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

We saw some high class winners at Newmarket this week but which ones will go on to challenge in the Classics and which were trained to run their best earlier in the season? Robin Keck looks for the answers.

I'm looking to stay with the hot Mr Hills, Gosden & Hannon for now but will soon be opposing them and siding with Messrs O'Brien and Stoute for the rest of the season. We can talk about lateral lines of form and ratings all day but the market will effectively turn that into a price and we need to look at the bigger picture to find value.

Looking at the specific races I'll start with an exception as I'm quite taken with Monsieur Chevalier from the Hannon stable both in his ability on track but also that he has surprised his connections. Apparently he's a lazy sort at home (spooky, so am I) and his laid back style will help him get the extra furlong in the Coventry. At [13.0] plus I'll be tempted.

Assessing the literal worth of Nehaam's victory for the Gosden stable is difficult. He was a major drifter on the day which was probably due to punters being put off that he'd been held up in his work by a stone bruise. You could argue there is a lot more improvement to come but I fear this is guessing and I'd rather leave those closer to the horse to decide if [20.0] or so is value for the Derby. Not for me.

What a joy it was to see Fantasia and Dettori run away with the Nell Gwyn. I know she didn't beat any world beaters but it's the style of the victory that mattered to me and it's a great pity that her shared ownership with Rainbow View muddies the whole classics picture. It is unavoidable that owners will often want to keep their horses apart but if that pair met in the 1000 Guineas it's just the sort of race that will bring the broader church to the races. If us geeks are genuinely excited it tends to rub off on 'the others' and that contest could compare with some of the great filly contests of yesteryear, Bayakoa v Go For Wand, Zola Budd v Mary Decker, I could go on. Hold all bets unless you clean Mr Strawbridge's car (the astute owner) and overhear him on his mobile confirming his race entries.

Thursday had some very class fare but let me be mushy in revelling in It's Alright's debut victory after only costing the owners 8000 Euros. Her trainer Alan Bailey used to be a permanent member of the Racing Post Cold List but the last couple of years have been much brighter and he's now producing high calibre individuals that have cost relatively little. I would usually discourage any potential owner from dipping in the sub £15k pool of horses but gee, I love it when I'm wrong. The hurdler, Lady Rebecca always comes to mind who was swapped for a conker and packet of football stickers before having a great career.

Back to the glamorous end of racing and the Craven produced an apparently serious 2000 Guineas contender in Delegator. When Jamie Spencer holds up a high class horse he looks one of the best around and I'm definitely in the pro camp. He seems to get horses to run for him although I accept he's not the most consistent. If I thought the jockey got it right then you have take a few mental points off the horse and on balance I'm against following this one. We have a lot more horses to see before the classics and if I can lay this one for a place at [2.2] I'll be looking to oppose him.

Do share your ante-post views below or even better match my Delegator place lay.