Haydock Placepot: Saturday 24th April
Tipping
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Timeform /
24 April 2010 /
"More appealing is Dolly Parton, for two reasons"
This time next week, we'll know the outcome of the 2000 Guineas. For those who do not want to know the result, please, as they say, look away now (1st St Nicholas Abbey, 2nd Awzaan, 3rd Elusive Pimpernel). In the meantime, we've got placepots to get up, starting with this evening's card at Haydock which includes a couple of potential 'potbuster' races, so strategy is all important, sparing lines in other places to splash out in the harder handicaps.
5.30 - It's a two-year-old race made up mostly of newcomers, so we need all the clues we can get, and, at the the time of writing, the Betfair market speaks in favour of Inagh River and Turn The Tide. The former, by Fasliyev and trained by Richard Hannon, is understandable, more so than Turn The Tide given Alan Bailey hasn't been near with a juvenile as yet this term, plus she's bred more for a mile. More appealing is Dolly Parton, for two reasons: her dam Batool ran her best race first time out, and Dandy Nicholls won with the only two-year-old he's sent out so far.
6.00 - Rio Mist is 9 lb higher than Nottingham and having her third race in fairly quick succession, reason enough to take her on. Diman Waters is a must after his promising reappearance, but back-up is needed in the shape of Key Breeze, who showed plenty of speed when with John Gosden last year, and his new stable, one adept with sprinters, is starting to roll.
6.35 - Another vulnerable favourite, as Danderek faces different circumstances including trip and surface, also unlikely to dominate to the same extent he had been at Wolverhampton. Whittling down the rest isn't easy, but Rosbay is in top form and Cry Alot Boy is well handicapped, fresh from a break with his sights back on turf.
7.05 - This is hard - very hard - and even three picks may not get us through, but the trio carrying our hopes are Just Bond (may be more motivated returned to turf), Muftarres (often shapes better than his bare record and has joined up-and-coming Paul Midgely) and Celtic Change (well drawn and good record first time out).
7.35 - We've spent enough lines, so it's bankers from now on, starting with Think Its All Over, the type to improve a lot more this year, and there's added encouragement in that Tom Tate's string seem well forward.
8.05 - We wouldn't recommend you take the odds on about Deauville Post winning, but it will be a surprise if two get the better of him, setting such a high standard.
Selections: 24 lines
5.30: 4,6
6.00: 8,12
6.35: 5,9
7.05: 6,7,9
7.35: 3
8.05: 1