Follow The Money: Gamble on the King

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two backs and one lay are as ever the Follow The Money approach.

Today's movers come from the meetings at Carlisle and Wolverhampton

On the face of it Brixen would appear to have a strong chance of success in Carlisle's novice chase at 14.30. She jumps very well for a novice and hasn't done too much wrong in two attempts at chasing, following her second at Exeter with a fourth last time out at Newbury. The market, [2.44] from [2.28], hints that there might be some mileage in taking her on, and that is probably based on the fact that she tired close home over this distance (after racing a touch keenly) at flat Newbury, whereas the long, gruelling finish at Carlisle should expose any stamina deficiency...even against weak opposition.

For our first back we're staying at Carlisle and putting faith in the ultra-reliable and improving Do It For Dalkey in the 15.40. This son of Silver Patriarch has an enviable record at this track with form figures of 1P11 with his last two wins here both by wide margins. His recent hike in the weights didn't prevent an excellent second in a class 2 last time out at Sandown so the market move [5.48] in to [4.5] suggests that the upward curve can continue today.

Lastly we go to Wolverhampton's 16.25 and an inmate of a stable that is not averse to the odd gamble, that of Michael Wigham. He saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of Aegean King, a Falbrav gelding making his first start in 520 days. Running off 10lbs lower than when last seen on the sand and with a market move [6.0] in to [4.7] in his favour, he might be worth keeping an eye on, but only if the gamble continues until the off.

Recommended Bets

Lay Brixen @ [2.44] Carlisle 14.30
Back Do It For Dalkey @ [4.5] Carlisle 15.40
Back Aegean King @ [4.7] Wolverhampton 16.25