Tipping / Stephen Molyneux / 21 March 2012 /

Timeform's Dubai expert Stephen Molyneux gives his take on the runners for the Dubai World Cup, set to take place on Saturday March 31...

Meydan will play host to its third running of the Dubai World Cup and it's probably fair to say that the previous two renewals have been something of an anti-climax with a steady pace and bunched finish blighting both. The same could well happen again with little separating the 13 expected runners in the $10,000,000 contest on Timeform ratings and tactics sure to play a part once more.

Aidan O'Brien ended his Dubai exile 12 months ago with several runners at the meeting, including Cape Blanco, who finished fourth in the World Cup, and this year he has an even stronger candidate in the form of So You Think, who currently heads the betting (and Timeform ratings) for the World's richest race. He is obviously a top-class performer and, whilst he did end 2011 on something of a downbeat note (sixth in Breeders' Cup Classic), that did come at the end of a hard year and it shouldn't be assumed that he doesn't handle an artificial surface. In fact, I think his style of racing will be well suited to tapeta, with races around Meydan often won by horses that commit quite early and grind it out for much of the straight. To my eye that is So You Think's style in a nutshell and, whilst such tactics are dependent on a good early position, he has the pace to gain such an edge and he does make some appeal at current odds of ([4.1]).

A lot of the build up to the race, and numerous camera lenses, will, no doubt, focus on Chantal Sutherland, who will become the first female to ride in the Dubai World Cup when she takes the mount on Game on Dude. The American participation has waned since the race was switched to tapeta but, in Game on Dude and Royal Delta, they will have their strongest challengers since Well Armed took the race back in 2009. Sutherland's mount was being prepped for the race 12 months ago prior to injury and it's fair to say he has improved since then, winning the Goodwood Stakes in October before finishing an excellent second behind Drosselmeyer in the Breeders' Cup Classic (So You Think behind). He made a winning reappearance when taking a Grade 2 contest as he was entitled to at Santa Anita in February and his style of racing (races close up) should lend itself to the track.

Royal Delta will also be looking to make history as she attempts to become the first filly or mare to win the race. It's fair to say there haven't been too many of the fairer sex run in the race but it will be some ask for Royal Delta, who is taking on the colts for the first time. She hasn't had that much racing, winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic on her final start last year, and she was entitled to have needed her recent comeback when only second in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream Park. The trip will suit better but there are others at the head of the market that have stronger claims in my opinion.

The cash went back to Japan last year courtesy of Victoire Pisa and they will have three chances of repeating the dose this time around. Smart Falcon is the pick of the trio on Timeform ratings having won his last nine races, including a Grade 1 event in November when finishing a length ahead of Transcend, who will bid to go one better than he did in the race 12 months ago. The pair are obviously a threat given their respective records as is Eishin Flash who arguably improved last time when second behind Orfevre in a Group 1 at Nakayama. Put Orfevre in the World Cup and he wouldn't be far off being favourite so Eishin Flash could represent some value at double-figure odds.

Godolphin will have four runners, none of whom are particularly well fancied, certainly in these quarters anyway. Capponi is the shortest price of the quartet having won the third round of the Maktoum Challenge last time but he very much got the run of things and I would be surprised if he was afforded the same luxury here. Previous evidence would suggest he isn't good enough, and that also applies to Mendip (won second round of Maktoum challenge) and Prince Bishop who has finished behind both Capponi and Mendip on his last 2 starts. Godolphin's best challenge could come in the form of Monterosso, who was third in the race 12 months ago, and he is entitled to come on for his only subsequent start when fourth behind Capponi earlier in the month.

Zazou, Silver Pond and Master of Hounds complete the projected line-up at this stage.

Zazou lowered the colours of Cirrus Des Aigles last time but that doesn't look a true reflection of their relative merits and he will need to improve to figure as will Silver Pond, who made a satisfactory debut for Doug Watson when second to Capponi recently. Having already said Capponi shouldn't be good enough it's hard to imagine Silver Pond improving enough to win but I wouldn't be as confident about saying the same regarding Master of Hounds. He was second in the UAE Derby for Aidan O'Brien last year and finally confirmed initial promise for this yard when taking the Jebel Hatta on turf last time. A switch to front-running helped that day (dictated steady gallop) but he'd threatened such a performance previously and assuming similar tactics are applied again he could get the run of things.

Whatever your staking plan I would advise keeping So You Think on side simply because he looks the type that will be well suited by the demands of racing around Meydan. For those preferring something at a bigger price then Eishin Flash and Master of Hounds represent the value.

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