December Gold Cup Betting: Nicholls to complete hat-trick

Tipping / Joe Szekeres / 06 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Messrs Nicholls and Walsh have to be respected for the big race occasions

"he [Havingotascoobydo] probably lacks the class of Ghizao, who is taken to give Nicholls yet another big-race winner, the current price of [9.0] looking most appealing."

The December Gold Cup is one of the most competitive races of the season and this year's renewal is no exception. Timeform's Joe Szekeres assesses the field...

There's only one place to start when assessing the field for the December Gold Cup, the Paddy Power Gold Cup run at Cheltenham last month. The first three from there - Great Endeavour, Quantitative Easing and Divers - all feature towards the head of the market for Saturday's race and it's easy to see why.

Three horses have landed the prestigious double in the same season - Pegwell Bay, Senor El Betrutti and, most recently in 2006, Exotic Dancer. David Pipe's Great Endeavour is the one to will be looking to add his name to that list this time around after his impressive seven-length win at Cheltenham win in November. He coped best that day with the searching gallop that was set and, having always been well placed, was in no danger after being sent on after three out, despite mistakes at the last two fences.

Great Endeavour has since finished a creditable fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury, when shaping like the best horse at the weights for most of the way before a big move from four out to two out seemed to take its toll, and the fact that he's now 10 lb higher than for his PP Gold Cup win isn't necessarily enough to anchor him.

Nicky Henderson's Quantitative Easing has gone up 3 lb for his Cheltenham second and has it to do in ratings terms to turn form around with Great Endeavour. However, Quantitative Easing, who finished runner-up to Divers in the Centenary at the Cheltenham Festival last season, will head back to Cheltenham a fresher horse than Great Endeavour, and he emerged with plenty of credit from his first run outside of novice company.

The aforementioned Divers finished third in the PP Gold Cup and is also reportedly on target for a rematch. Ferdy Murphy's gelding matched the form of his Centenary win with his placed effort last time and probably did well to get so close from so far back, not making headway until three out. HIs effort flattened out a little after such a move, but there's a good chance he'll come on agian for the run and he's better handicapped this time having been 5 lb out of the weights last time.

The trainers of the first two mentioned, Pipe and Henderson, have been in tremendous form on the big Saturday's this season, but Paul Nicholls has arguably been doing even better.

Nicholls had to rule out dual December Gold Cup winner Poquelin earlier in the week, but will still be double handed.The weights went up after Poquelin's defection, but the champion trainer is also responsible for the new top-weight, Woolcombe Folly. However, he is probably in a difficult position this season, not quite good enough to win graded races and too high in the handicap to remain competitive in this sphere.

Nicholls' other runner, Ghizao, is much more interesting. Andy Stewart, owner of Poquelin, sponsors this year's race, which will be run as the Spinal Reasearch The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup, and it's fitting that he still has a good chance of winning despite that one's non-participation. Stewart is also a part owner of Ghizao, along with the Johnson family, and he looks a fascinating entry for Saturday's feature.

Ghizao twice beat subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris in novice chases last winter, after which he was talked about as a future Champion Chase contender by connections. His jumping started to let him down in the latter stages of the season, however, and he was only fifth in the Arkle before finishing second behind Finian's Rainbow at Aintree, where a mistake at the last fence arguably cost him the race.

A disappointing seasonal reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup is a notable blotch on Ghizao's copybook, but his overall profile suggests he's well worth another chance. Alan King's Medermit was the winner at Exeter on that occasion and has to be respected at the weights on Saturday, but with the step up in trip likely to take some pressure off of Ghizao's jumping and softer conditions likely to suit, he should be capable of reversing that form.

There are plenty of others to consider for Saturday's feature, including Salut Flo, Havingotascoobydo and Sunnyhillboy.

Salut Flo is a second interesting entry from Pond House, despite not having been seen since early 2010, when finishing second behind Prince de Beauchene in a handicap chase at Haydock. A strong-travelling type that jumps with zest, Salut Flo has been given a chance by the handicapper, just 5 lb higher than for that Haydock run (he's 1 lb out of the weights on Saturday), and David Pipe is more than capable of getting a horse ready for a big assignment after a long lay-off.

Martin Keighley's Havingotascoobydo looks an interesting outsider from 3 lb out of the handicap, with the form of the race in which he finished second at Cheltenham last month having worked out well. He finished three lengths behind Tanks For That on that occasion, but both the third and sixth placed horses have since gone on to post victories. Havingotascoobydo shaped as though a step up in trip would bring about further improvement and, with his solid jumping likely to hold him in good stead at Cheltenham, he looks capable of going close.

Sunnyhillboy is also worthy of mention, given some of the performances he has put in at Cheltenham in the past. A second behind Great Endeavour in the 2010 renewal of the Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham and a third in this race last year have been just about the pick of his form, and based on those two efforts he should have a good chance. The odd jumping mistake has tended to be his undoing in the past but there is every possibility that McCoy will ride and he can get the best out of Sunnyhillboy.

In summary, Havingotascoobydo is open to enough improvement to suggest that he could go close on Saturday despite being 3 lb out of the handicap, especially as the longer trip is likely to suit, but he probably lacks the class of Ghizao, who is taken to give Nicholls yet another big-race winner, the current price of [9.0] looking most appealing.

Recommendations
Back Ghizao @ [9.0] to win the December Gold Cup.
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