Tipping / Timeform / 24 January 2011 /

Half the battle with ante-post betting is backing a horse which actually turns up in the given race on the day, with betting on the Cheltenham Festival further complicated by the multiple targets now on offer to top horses.

One of several new races introduced at the Cheltenham Festival when a fourth day was added in 2005, the Ryanair Chase offers those who are caught between two stools the chance to win a Grade 1. In this instance, thoses "stools" are the two miles of Queen Mother Champion Chase and the three and a quarter miles of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, with the Ryanair run over the intermediate trip of twenty-one furlongs a day in between those long-established championship contests.

A Timeform performance rating somewhere in the low 160s has been enough to win each of the six runnings of the Ryanair, which helps with narrowing down the likely contenders come March, as there are only a handful who have realistic pretensions to run to such a level, remembering that Thisthatandtother, Fondmort, Taranis, Our Vic, Imperial Commander and Albertas Run were all well established when they landed the prize.

Paul Nicholls' Poquelin heads the betting for this year's renewal at ([5.8]) and has a similar profile to those aforementioned winners, having been plying his trade over the last couple of seasons in the top two-and-a-half-mile handicaps. Added to that, Poqeulin has an excellent record at Cheltenham, with half of his eight career wins coming at the track, and those being his most recent four too.

Poquelin put up the sort of handicap performance bettered in recent seasons only by the likes of Kauto Star (2006 Old Roan) and Denman (last two Hennessy Gold Cups) as he followed up his 2009 success in December's big Cheltenham handicap (run as the Vote A.P. Gold Cup this term) last time, beating Great Endeavour by a length under top weight of 11-12. Although clearly not in quite the same bracket as Kauto Star and Denman, Poqeulin is better now than when runner-up to Albertas Run in last year's Ryanair and likely wouldn't need to step up his form to go one better this time around.

Albertas Run is understandably towards the head of the market ([16.0]) to repeat last year's success, but he's still prone to the odd bad run and has something to prove as it stands after his three runs this season. Things certainly haven't gone to plan on the last two, falling heavily three out (when looking held by Master Minded) in the Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot on the first occasion before being pulled up as if amiss in the King George at Kempton. His best form makes him a contender, but he couldn't be backed at the moment.

Nicky Henderson has a potential strong hand, with the likes of Punchestowns, Long Run and Riverside Theatre all possible participants. It will be a big surprise, however, should the Waley-Cohens' Long Run ([90.0]) go for the Ryanair rather than chase Gold Cup glory following his imperious display in winning the aforementioned King George at Kempton. Instead, that leaves Punchestowns ([20.0]) and, more interestingly, Riverside Theatre. ([17.0]).

Admittedly, Punchestowns has yet to fully live up to his top-class hurdling form over fences, though his odds-on reappearance defeat at Newbury makes for better reading now and we'll know more about his Festival prospects following his appearance in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham this weekend. The Gold Cup could still be on the agenda for Punchestowns after that, though the Ryanair will be the only Cheltenham Festival entry for Riverside Theatre. Unfortunately, that doesn't make him a definite starter, as connections have mooted the possibility of missing the Festival altogether in favour of a target at Aintree the following month. That said, it could still pay to take a chance on Riverside Theatre, as his price would plummet should he be announced a confirmed Ryanair runner, which would provide an opportunity of laying off that ante-post bet. What isn't in doubt is that Riverside Theatre would hold a leading chance should he turn up at Cheltenham, his fine second to stable-companion Long Run in the King George representing form that sets him apart from most of his likely rivals in this race.

The Irish also have a couple of interesting contenders in the shape of Tranquil Sea and J'Y Vole. Edward O'Grady's Tranquil Sea disappointed in last season's Ryanair, but he's shown himself even better now in two runs this term, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase and the John Durkan (at Fairyhouse rather than Punchestown), in the latter making the breakthrough at Grade 1 level as he beat J'Y Vole by three-quarters of a length.

Tranquil Sea may well head straight to Cheltenham this time around, having gone there just three weeks after winning the Newlands Chase last year, but ([9.6]) looks a fair reflection of his chance and, if anything, J'Y Vole, who was an excellent third in last year's Ryanair, is the better value at ([23.0]). J'Y Vole is easily excused her latest effort, failing to stay three miles in the Lexus, and the 7 lb allowance she will receive at Cheltenham brings her right into the reckoning.

Trainer Henrietta Knight has saddled only one winner since the end of October, so it's a mark of the impression Somersby has created that he currently trades as the ([8.8]) second favourite for the Ryanair. Somersby finished runner-up in the Arkle last season but has long shaped as if further than two miles will suit him ideally, which makes his three placed efforts this term all the more encouraging, notably when pushing Master Minded to a short head at level weights on his latest. That performance clearly gives him a live chance in the Queen Mother Champion Chase but, unless the ground comes up soft at Cheltenham, Knight reports that the Ryanair is likely to be Somersby's Festival target. Therefore, in common with Riverside Theatre, it's well worth taking a chance with him at current odds despite those doubts about him even turning up on the day!

Recommendations:

Back Somersby @ ([8.8]) and Riverside Theatre @ ([17.0]) in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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