Breeders' Cup 2011: The Rest of The World Are Coming!

Tipping / Simon Rowlands / 02 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Simon's best bets are on the Dirt

"You can lose the battle, just so long as you win the war, apparently. While the home contingent seems sure to come off worse in some of those skirmishes, they hold strong positions in many of the other races at horseracing’s unofficial World Championships."

The Breeders' Cup has been dubbed the "World Championships" of horseracing, and a knowledge of form in more than one continent is crucial for punters. Simon Rowlands sets the scene and picks his way through the minefield to what he hopes are some good bets...

One of the more colourful and enduring tales from American history is that of the midnight ride of Paul Revere, commemorated in a poem by Longfellow.

Revere famously rode through the night to warn the people of Massachusetts of the imminent arrival of British forces before the battles of Lexington and Concord, apocryphally shouting "The British are coming!"

A modern-day Revere, arriving (presumably by plane, train or automobile, rather than on horseback) in Kentucky on the eve of the 2011 Breeders' Cup, might also cry "The British are coming!" Before adding: "And the French, too. Not to mention the Irish. And then there's this horse called So You Think that has come from New Zealand by way of Australia. They are ALL coming!"

In Revere's time, the home defence rallied after early losses and forced the invaders to retreat. The 2011 Breeders' Cup on Friday and Saturday could well see a similar tale of waxing and waning of fortunes.

The truth is, however, that the British do not even appear to be the biggest of the Americans' problems this time.

Elusive Kate is favourite for the Juvenile Fillies' Turf on the Friday, and fellow Brits Strong Suit, Midday and Sea Moon will be justly fancied in their engagements. But the French can boast Sarafina and the mighty Goldikova - going for a remarkable fourth straight win in the Breeders' Cup Mile on the Saturday - while the Irish have the likes of Await The Dawn, St Nicholas Abbey and the aforementioned adopted Antipodean legend So You Think among the troops.

You can lose the battle, just so long as you win the war, apparently. While the home contingent seems sure to come off worse in some of those skirmishes, they hold strong positions in many of the other races at horseracing's unofficial World Championships.

The other three juvenile races are dominated by local talent, and My Miss Aurelia (Juvenile Fillies) and Secret Circle (Juvenile Sprint) look particularly strong. The two big sprints on Saturday will be staying at home also, with Big Drama a worthy favourite in a bid for back-to-back Breeders' Cup success.

Picking out a few attractive bets among a plethora of races which seem either quite one-sided or dangerously open is not easy, but here are my suggestions:

SWITCH (Filly & Mare Sprint, Friday) 1 pt win and 1 pt place. Switch has been phenomenally consistent, making the first three on her last 10 starts, and she should achieve the feat again, especially with the return to seven furlongs in her favour. Only the favourite Turbulent Descent has the form to beat her, and that one has been off for three months.

PLUM PRETTY (Ladies' Classic, Friday) 2 pts win. In the absence of Havre de Grace (goes in Classic itself), Plum Pretty is comfortably the best in the first day's finale. She thrashed It's Tricky (a place possible here) last time and earlier won the Kentucky Oaks at course and distance. She's a straightforward "point and go" type, and most of her rivals are likely to let her get on with it.

WILBURN (Dirt Mile, Saturday) 2 pts win. Wilburn's win in the Indiana Derby last time (well worth locating on YouTube) came at the expense of high-class rivals Shackleford and Caleb's Posse, who both reoppose here, and seems to have been under-rated by the public. What's more, his stalking run style should fit well in a race in which those drawn inside him will go hell for leather. He's a horse going places: most of his rivals are not.

UNION RAGS (Juvenile, Saturday) lay to lose 2 pts. The unbeaten Union Rags has the best form in the Juvenile - probably - but not the kind of form that justifies him being spoken of in the same breath as was Uncle Mo leading up to this last year. US punters love him, but he has never run in a field as big as this, much less when drawn near the outside, and he seems likely to be overbet.

Get a free form guide for racing in the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.