Welsh National Betting: Dinghies & life jackets at the ready

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 14 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Chepstow stages the Welsh National.

"A race where you can study form and statistics all day and still be shocked by the result, the Welsh National is a fascinating betting heat..."

It's rare that a Welsh National is run on anything other than testing, rain- or snow-softened ground, so it takes a certain type of horse to win. Bearing that in mind,Timeform's Matt Gardner assesses the field in the hope of throwing up a couple of value bets...

In Aztec religion, Tlaloc was an important deity, the God of rain, fertility and water. He gave life and substance but was also feared for his ability to send rain, hail, thunder and lightning. He must have taken an abject dislike to staying chases staged in late December in Wales then, as all of the last 10 runnings of the Welsh National have had the words "soft" or "heavy" in the going description.

The ability to handle the almost inevitable testing conditions is a must for any Welsh National hopeful, so a good place to start is last season's renewal, which went the way of the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Synchronised.

Racing off a 5 lb lower mark that day than what he's currently set to race from, Synchronised showed stamina to be his strong suit when picking up Giles Cross in the straight. He jumped round without too much cause for alarm, although his fencing technique is not one for the faint-hearted, and looked a progressive staying chaser.

Synchronised, who currently trades as the [7.6] favourite for the Welsh National on Betfair, went on to finish third in the Midlands National before being looked after in the Irish Grand National once his chance had gone, and he has returned from a summer break with two respectable runs over hurdles. The first of those was very much a 'pipe-opener', but he ran as well as he ever has over the obstacles when finishing third to Dynaste at Haydock last time. We know he handles conditions and we know that he stays the distance, both factors that contribute to him making great appeal as a betting proposition, and although his style of jumping isn't out of the textbook, it should be stated that he has fallen only once in his career.

Runner-up to Synchronised 12 months ago, Giles Cross ([11.0]) is 1 lb better off at the weights with that rival this time around. Victor Dartnall's nine year-old has emerged as one of the dourest staying handicap chasers around, finishing second in what was a particularly gruelling Eider Chase just over a month after that effort at Chepstow. His seasonal return at Fontwell last month yielded a win in the Southern National and, although that was yet another hard race, the fact that he has taken races of such ilk in his stride numerous times means it is unlikely to hinder him come Christmas.

A strong case can clearly be made again for both Synchronised and Giles Cross, hence they are at the top of the market, but I shall endeavour to find a couple likely to outrun their big odds.

The Brian Ellison-trained Neptune Equester gained a fourth career success at Haydock last month, underlining that he is all about stamina in the process after making headway from rear to get on terms with the leaders. A 7 lb rise in the weights demands further improvement, but he is fairly lightly-raced for an eight-year-old and his jumping now looks assured enough to not be a worry.

Another horse that is relatively inexperienced is the Paul Nicholls-trained The Minack, who made a winning return to action at Wincanton early last month on what was just his fifth start over fences. He proved his stamina over an extended three miles there, getting the better of a prolonged tussle with stablemate Meanus Dandy up the home straight, and though he faces an extra half mile at Chepstow, his dam won the Irish National and he handles testing conditions well, so appeals as an upwardly mobile young handicapper to keep on side.

Galaxy Rock, stablemate to Synchronised, is also an interesting contender with his latest success at Cheltenham fairly tricky to weigh up. He took a big step forward on what was just his seventh start over fences, and being a progressive sort he was at odds with the majority of his opposition that day.

Carruthers, Hey Big Spender and West End Rocker all finished behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham, but each have come out and won since and could reoppose, whilst Fair Along, who was sixth at Cheltenham, went on to finish third in the Hennessy. That form is clearly strong, but Galaxy Rock has been hit hard for that success, raised 11 lb, which gives a couple of those beaten at Cheltenham a good chance of turning the tables.

Hey Big Spender, is potentially the one to keep an eye on, having promised to deliver one of these big handicaps for a while now, or rather he's carried my money in the hope that he will deliver one. He strikes as the type to revel in this sort of test - likely to stay the distance and relish the underfoot conditions. Yes, he has in the past been let down by his jumping, but his technique has held together fairly well on his two starts this year and, importantly, was not an issue as the race wore on at Newcastle last time, where he beat The Hollinwell by just over a length. He looks rather tempting at the [22.0] currently available, and is another to bear in mind.

A race where you can study form and statistics all day and still be shocked by the result, the Welsh National is a fascinating betting heat. It is easy to imagine the first two from 12 months ago playing a major role again, with both proven in conditions and having returned from the summer in decent form. They are indeed hard to split, but preference would just be for Giles Cross, while the other I want to keep on side is The Minack, whose progressive profile makes plenty of appeal, as does the fact that he relishes testing conditions, which are almost certain where the Welsh National is concerned.

Recommendations

Back Giles Cross @ [11.0] and The Minack @ [22.0] in the Welsh National