Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 25 January 2012 /

Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at one of the betting features of the weekend, Saturday's three-mile Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster...

Since 1993, Paul Nicholls has won the race twice (Colourful Life in '95 and Big Fella Thanks four years later), and he could be doubly-represented with both Aiteen Thirtythree and Aerial currently entered. Despite his good record, however, the champion trainer could struggle to land the hat-trick this time round with the former yet to prove he can really cut it in competitive races (well beaten in RSA and this year's Hennessy/two chase wins came in 4 and 5-runner fields) and the latter, who reportedly had a breathing operation over the summer, now 5 lb higher than when fourth in the PP Gold Cup on his return.

Another who will have to defy a career-high mark is Qianshan Leader, who has been raised 8 lb for his latest success. That career-best did come over course and distance (on good ground), but it featured a relatively serious mistake at the eleventh and the form is hardly working out well.

While on the subject of jumping, although Doncaster may not be amongst the most taxing of tracks, the fencing techniques of Etxalar (entered 14:15 at Newcastle, Thursday), Cape Tribulation and, most notably, King Fontaine would make them all very risky betting propositions.

A similar comment also applies to former prolific-winning pointer Hold On Julio, who put up a staggering performance when winning at Sandown last month having made at least three howlers in the process. The ease of his victory (his third on the bounce) suggests another 11 lb hike isn't going to stop him, but a continuation of such sloppy jumping will surely catch him out at some point.

Calgary Bay has been known to throw in the odd mistake but is usually a sound jumper and that was evident in his Cheltenham victory on New Year's Day. He has a career-high mark to overcome but his yard are enjoying their best spell for some time and the fact that he was a seven-length winner over course and distance (also second on only other track start) in December 2009 should not be overlooked.

Merigo is the third, and final, course and distance winner in the field but the veteran has shown nothing since finishing runner-up in last year's Scottish National and probably has that race (won it in 2010) as his target once again. Another out of form is Billie Magern, who has been very disappointing since making a winning return at Cheltenham in October.

Trip quandaries are the reasons for ruling out a number of the others, with Galaxy Rock and Wayward Prince (suspect jumper) preferring a greater test of stamina, and Riguez Dancer, Osric and I'msingingtheblues all doubtful stayers.

A runner who'll have no trouble with the distance, however, is the resurgent Carrickmines, who won twice over hurdles at Taunton before shaping better than the result when fourth switched back to fences at Ludlow last time. Though he has plenty to do on Timeform ratings, he's still fairly treated on his previous chase form and could well stay on for a place off his low weight.

One at the foot of the handicap who is within striking distance of the ratings principals is Shalimar Fromentro, who was chucked in at the deep end on his British return (three previous runs had all been at Auteuil) when contesting the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. Still going well when falling at the thirteenth that day, he's not at all harshly handicapped on his 2010/11 novice form (won three-mile event at Warwick) and may have been freshened up by a break since.

Shakalakaboomboom could well prove one of Shalimar Fromentro's biggest threats, with the Nicky Henderson-trained eight-year-old better than ever when scoring at Cheltenham (well-beaten fifth Mostly Bob won next time) on his return from a seven-month break. A 4 lb rise for that success seems fair and connections are reportedly hoping he runs well enough to guarantee him a place in the Grand National line-up in April.

Of those not to have been touched upon, Fruity O'Rooney (up 6 lb) and Araldur (let down by jumping last time) seemingly have each-way chances at best, whilst the Timeform 'squiggle' sums up Tamarinbleu, Wymott and Nikola (though the latters trainer has also won the race twice in the last 20 years).

Hold On Julio and Shakalakaboomboom have both run to figures that would see them win most running's of the Sky Bet Chase since the turn of the century, but at the prices it would be foolish not to advise Shalimar Fromentro, who was first past the post in France on his penultimate start prior to being demoted after impeding the runner-up, and shaped well for a long way in the Becher last time. He may be two years younger than anything else in the race bar Aerial, but it's anticipated that Shalimar Fromentro has had enough chasing experience to be able to hold his own in such company and young horses have a good record in the race (since 1993, nine of the 16 winners have been aged 8 or under).

Recommendation

Back Shalimar Fromentro @ [13.0] in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster

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