Ante-post / Harry Bowles / 14 April 2011 /

The Scottish version represents the acceptable face of Nationals; run at a proper course over sensible fences, and it's a much more attractive betting medium as a result. Timeform's Harry Bowles runs the rule over the field for Saturday's feature...

Confirmed stamina is always a handy asset when it comes to such marathon races, and it's looking as if the four-mile National Hunt Chase won by Chicago Grey at Cheltenham last month is going to have a huge bearing on the latest renewal of Ayr's centrepiece. The first three from that race are all set to reconvene on different terms, and all three appear to hold claims to differing degrees. Then again, the winner of last year's long-distance Festival event also returns as a leading player.

Chicago Grey has enjoyed a tremendously productive season as a staying novice, his four wins culminating with a clear-cut success in the aforementioned four-miler at Cheltenham last month. He got into a fine rhythm there and won in clear-cut fashion under an excellent Derek O'Connor ride. With no doubts over his stamina, and his jumping increasingly looking a firm asset, he looks the one to beat as things stand. Chicago Grey had four and a half lengths to spare over Beshabar at Cheltenham and is set to reoppose under 5 lb worse terms. Little to choose between them, then. Perhaps so, the latter finally fulfilling his potential as a chaser in running so well last month, but he lacks the winner's experience for a big-field event such as this and was firmly held by that one when it came down to it last time.

How about third-placed Be There In Five then? What are his chances of reversing the form? Not bad by the look of things. He remains unexposed, finished twelve and a half lengths behind Chicago Grey whilst showing unexpected reserves of stamina at Cheltenham and, moreover, will be better off at the weights with that one. Should Neptune Collonges or Tidal Bay turn up, however, he won't be as well off as he should be, and there's a fear that, a bit like Beshabar, his lack of experience will count against him, yet to tackle a handicap or the hurly-burly of a race such as this.

Going back twelve months, Poker de Sivola arrived at Ayr as one of the favourites for this race having himself won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. He'd endured a tremendously hard race in winning that, though, getting the better of a classic duel with Becauseicouldntsee, and simply wasn't in the same force in the race itself. Ferdy Murphy has afforded Poker de Sivola a decidedly more low-key campaign ths time around, however, and he rather caught the eye in the Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham last month. With stamina and, seemingly, well-being assured, a lot better is expected of Poker de Sivola a year on.

Elsewhere, Neptune Collonges is set to top the weights. A top-class chaser in his own right, even if stablemates Kauto Star and Denman have denied him the limelight, he came back from more than a year and a half on the sidelines with a tendon injury to show all's not lost with a win in the small-field Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January. He took little interest in the Gold Cup next time, though, and it seems unlikely that he'll thrive in face of this sort of test. Also up there in the handicap is Tidal Bay. Whether he takes his chance after unseating at the tenth in the Grand National last weekend remains to be seen but, either way, it's his temperament which is a bigger concern than jumping or stamina, his squiggle a well-earned one with that in mind.

After a long while in the doldrums, Blazing Bailey was rejuvenated as a staying chaser with wins at Cheltenham in January and Ffos Las in February. He seemed to find three miles too sharp when below that form at the Festival last month and should be better suited by this extreme trip. Whether he's good enough for some younger and more progressive rivals is another matter, however.

Ouzbeck rather lost his way before joining Emma Lavelle, but he bounced back this time last year with a win at Cheltenham coming ahead of victory in the Summer National at Uttoxeter. He came back from a winter break with a spin over hurdles at Bangor last month and can be expected to show much more like his true form here, making him of more interest than most over a trip he's more likely than not to stay.

John Wade has enjoyed a fine time of things as both owner and trainer this season and Always Right has made a very smooth transition from points/hunters, winning at Kelso before scoring in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March. He was ridden with typical patience and well suited by the strong pace when beating Lothian Falcon a head on the second occasion, but he was a deserving winner nonetheless. The longer trip is something of a concern here, but otherwise he deserves plenty of respect.

That's Rhythm has fallen in the last two renewals of this race and came a cropper in the Grand National last weeked, enough to field against him here, whilst Merigo, who won it last season, simply hasn't looked in the same form this time around and was presumably trained for the Grand National (missed the cut).

Not as tough a National to deal with as last weekend's English version, those easy to fancy easy to fancy, those less so less so. If Chicago Grey has come through his Cheltenham exertions sufficiently well - and he won with a bit to spare - he's sure to take plenty of beating and is comfortably the likeliest winner. Otherwise, his predecessor as the National Hunt Chase winner, Poker de Sivola, is expected to give a far better showing than he did last season.

Recommendations

Back Chicago Grey @ [6.2] and Poker de Sivola @ [17.0] in the Scottish National at Ayr

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