Lexus Chase Betting: Rubi to shine a Light in Irish Grade 1

Ante-post / Joe Szekeres / 12 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Best Mate won the Lexus Chase before landing his third Gold Cup.

"Rubi Light is a chaser on an upward curve, improving no end in the last eighteen months..."

The Lexus Chase is one of the racing highlights during the winter months and the race itself often marks out Ireland's leading candidate for the Cheltenham Gold Cup the following March...

Best Mate and Denman, ironically both from Britain, are two horses to have landed this historic Irish Grade 1 (ran is the Ericsson when the first-named was victorious in 2003) before going on to land the same season's Cheltenham showpiece in recent times. As has been widely reported, Denman was set to line up in this year's race but a near fore tendon injury means that the former champion has been forced into early retirement.

With his defection, it's left to stable-companion Noland to fill the void (Synchronised and Skippers Brig are also entered from this side of the Irish Sea but there isn't a compelling case to be made for either, Synchronised likelier to take up an engagement in the Welsh National). Noland, who won what now looks a weak Aon Chase at Newbury when last seen in February, will be making his seasonal reappearance but did win a Grade 3 at Down Royal on his 2008/9 return.

However, with the British challenge lacking a standout performer, we must focus our attention on the Irish staying chasers, of which Pandorama is arguably the leading performer having taken the same race race last year in imperious fashion. That said, sadly he is yet to overcome an injury sustained in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup and is another who will miss the race.

In Pandorama's absence, the path is a lot clearer for the likes of Joncol and Cooldine, third and twelfth in last year's renewal respectively.

Of the pair, Joncol makes the most appeal and has the greater chance of victory having conceded 10 lb when defeating Cooldine by twelve lengths on his seasonal reappearance back in November. There is no evidence to suggest that Cooldine can reverse that form and, with Joncol having put up a solid display when finishing second over an inadequate trip behind Rubi Light in the recent John Durkan Chase, Paul Nolan's eight-year-old is one of the likelier winners.

It has been reported that Joncol was never quite right last season so his short-priced defeat in last season's Irish Hennessy may not be all it seemed at the time. He finished third behind Kempes and Glencove Marina on that occasion, the latter set to reoppose at Leopardstown, but Joncol should be capable of turning the tables on that rival, and, with age of his side, he might still prove himself the top-class chaser he once promised to be.

Joncol's John Durkan conqueror Rubi Light looks a fascinating contender too given the overall progress he has made over fences in the last eighteen months. The pick of his form last year came in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where a blunder two from home scuppered his chances of victory, before he rallied in the closing stages, eventually finishing in third behind Albertas Run.

Rubi Light demonstrated plenty of verve in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park on his seasonal reappearance back in October, where he travelled extremely well and had the measure of Sizing Europe before crashing out at the final fence. Although errors have cost him dearly on those two starts, his jumping remains one of his greatest assets and, if he regains the progressive thread he demonstrated last term, Rubi Light could be a horse destined for the top. He steps up to three miles for the first time.

Generally speaking, the form of last season's staying novice chase division is weak, with the RSA Chase in particular having taken plenty of knocks in recent weeks. The winner of that race, Boston's Angel has suffered two subsequent defeats since landing the Cheltenham Grade 1 back in March, unseating his rider in the JNWine Chase at the beginning of November, before finishing third behind Golan Way and Benbane Head in an intermediate chase at Sandown at the beginning of the month. The merit of the latter contest is particularly questionable and Boston's Angel will have to improve significantly upon that if he is going to be competitive in the upcoming contest.

Boston Angel's conqueror in the JNWine Chase, Quito de La Roque, is also a second season chaser, but he has a much greater chance of victory than the rival who defeated him in the Fort Leney Novices' Chase at the Lexus Meeting last year. Quito de La Roque was arguably given too much to do when defeated by Boston's Angel on that occasion, staying on strongly to be denied by the narrowest of margins and, yet to taste defeat since, he is most definitely a chaser on the upgrade.

With the bottomless ground we come to expect over the Christmas period likely to play to the strengths of the Colm Murphy-trained gelding, there seems to be very few reasons to oppose him as he is the one staying chaser from last year's novice crop that has proven himself against the seasoned compaigners with his victory in the JNWine chase his best performance so far. Further improvement can be anticipated and, with that in mind, Quito de La Roque could easily promote himself to the position of Ireland's leading chaser for the commencing of 2012.

To conclude, Quito de La Roque is the most likely winner of the Lexus, his price firmly reflecting this reality, but with two weeks to go before the race he probably isn't one to be siding with at cramped odds of [2.54]. Joncol is likely to improve for the step back up to three miles after a good performance in the John Durkan Chase, but it is his conqueror from that contest who makes most appeal. Rubi Light is a chaser on an upward curve, improving no end in the last eighteen months and, with reason to believe that he could even improve for the longer trip, he looks a fair bet at [6.0].

Recommendation
Back Rubi Light @ [6.8] to win the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown

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