Lexus Chase Betting: Mullins hoodoo to come to an end?
Ante-post
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Harry Bowles /
20 December 2010 /
Willie Mullins looks to have sound claims of belatedly winning his first Lexus Chase
"Cooldine's not far off the standard that's likely to be required to win this as it is, and he certainly comes right into the reckoning on the back of an encouraging fifth to Tranquil Sea in the John Durkan at Fairyhouse on his reappearance."
It may lack the lustre of Kauto Star and a place in the history books, but it only takes a cursory glance at some of the winners of the Lexus Chase to show that Ireland's Christmas centrepiece is no second-class citizen when it comes to Grade One races. Dorans Pride, Beef or Salmon, Best Mate, Denman and Exotic Dancer have all won the event in recent seasons, whilst What A Friend triumphed twelve months ago and bids to retain the title at Leopardstown this year.
What A Friend improved out of all recognition last season, grinding out a hard-fought victory over Money Trix and Joncol here before taking advantage of a below-par showing from Imperial Commander to add the Betfair Bowl at Aintree to his CV. Paul Nicholls' gelding disappointed behind the last-named in the Befair Chase at Haydock on return, but it would be no surprise at all if he were to bounce back to form here.
The placed horses reoppose, with Joncol perhaps having the best chance of turning the tables. Paul Nolan's gelding confirmed himself one of the best staying chasers in Ireland with victories in the John Durkan and the Hennessy (beat Cooldine a neck) in a lucrative 2009/10 campaign. He was a shade disappointing in the Fortria Chase on return, though certainly needs further than two miles and is certain to be seen to much better advantage here provided the ground is testing. Money Trix hasn't stood a great deal of racing in recent seasons, but he's very smart on his day and was only denied by half a length by What A Friend last term. However, he's not been seen since disappointing behind Joncol in the Hennessy six weeks later (reportedly scoped badly) and has a tendency to make the odd mistake.
Cooldine was too free for his own good in this last time and eventually paid for the lack of a recent run, but he's got much better form either side of that effort even if he perhaps hasn't progressed quite as expected since winning the RSA Chase in 2008/9. He was only just touched off by Joncol in last season's Hennessy at this track and ended the campaign with a pair of respectable efforts behind Imperial Commander in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Planet of Sound in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. Either way, he's not far off the standard that's likely to be required to win this as it is and certainly comes right into the reckoning on the back of an encouraging fifth to Tranquil Sea in the John Durkan at Fairyhouse on his reappearance.
A regular visitor to these shores in the last few seasons, The Listener has been well campaigned to win four Grade Ones, including this very race back in 2006/7. He bounced back from a disappointing 2008/9 to run out an easy winner of the JNWine.com Champion Chase in November 2009 and would have to be feared if in that sort of form, but presumably it's the case that he's had a problem not to have been seen since.
It would be reckless to imagine we've seen the best of Pandorama as of yet. Defeated just once in his nine completed starts under Rules, going unbeaten during his novice chase campaign, when his victories included a short-head defeat of Weapon's Amnesty in the Knight Frank here. Things haven't gone to plan this season, withdrawn on veterinary advice at the start of his intended return and badly hampered early in the Hennessy at Newbury. It will be no surprise to see him offer a good deal more back on home soil. Pandorama was rated about the same as China Rock as a novice, the latter reaching that level despite managing just the one win. Encouragingly he's improved further this season withgraded successes at Gowran and Punchestown. He couldn't cope with Kauto Star at Down Royal last time, but there's no shame in that, and the bigger concern is that he's yet to fully convince he stays a testing three miles.
Kempes is a Flat-bred gelding who progressed rapidly over fences last season, culminating in a three-length defeat of the aforementioned China Rock in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Improved again when staying-on third to Golden Silver on seasonal bow at Punchestown, but doubtful this longer trip will serve him as well. Elsewhere, Tranquil Sea and J'Y Vole would both have form claims if turning out again after finishing first and second in the John Durkan, but neither is proven over this trip and Cooldine would be a strong fancy to turn the form around.
In sum, then, Cooldine is selected to put up a far better display than when disappointing twelve months ago and right a wrong by giving Willie Mullins his first win in this race.
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