Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle Betting: Take a chance on Aber

Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 15 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Abergavenny (purple cap) can turn the tables on Brampour (fair right).

"Abergavenny has done nothing wrong in his hurdling career so far and, consequently, it's difficult to find a reason not to back him at current odds..."

Olofi may be out of Saturday's two mile Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot with a dirty scope but that still leaves a large field of closely-matched handicappers for Timeform's Adam Brookes to sift through...

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls is due to be trebly-represented with Brampour holding the strongest chance according to Timeform ratings. Brampour, whose revised BHA rating of 168 means he's theoretically 9 lb well-in (although that figure does include the 7 lb his conditional rider couldn't claim last time) was reported by Nicholls earlier in the week to have had a little setback before his latest run meaning he missed three days work, so the fact his third to Grandouet in Sandown's International Hurdle was as good as the second of his handicap victories a month previously shows he's clearly tough as well as progressive. As a course-and-distance winner he has a lot going to for him and clearly gets on well with his young rider, but it wouldn't be the greatest shock were he to find one or two better handicapped.

One who certainly fits in that bracket is unexposed stable-companion Prospect Wells, who will be making his handicap debut off an official mark of 142. A useful performer on the Flat in France, Prospect Wells has made a seamless transition to hurdles so far, finding only Steps To Freedom a neck too good in three starts. Though it will be a surprise if the progression required for him to be competitive in such a race isn't forthcoming, current cramped odds hardly make him a betting proposition.

Nicholls third runner is Tonic Mellysse and, while he probably is indeed the third string, his hurdles form gives him a squeak and it will be interesting to see how he reverts to the smaller obstacles after falling in a 3-runner chase at Warwick recently.

Tonic Mellysse's owner Simon Munir, who also has Champion Hurdle second favourite Grandouet amongst his fleet in two shades of green, may also be represented by Alan King's Raya Star. Like Tonic Mellysse though, Raya Star is another who may be playing for place money at best as whilst he performed well when third to the Nicholls' pair Rock On Ruby and Empire Levant in a handicap at Newbury last time, another 2 lb rise in the weights will make things more difficult.

Nicky Henderson enjoyed a stellar Saturday last week and is currently double-handed with Gibb River and Rajdhani Express, both of whom ran in the same soft-ground handicap won by Ubi Ace at Sandown last time, finishing third and fifth respectively. Ex-French Rajdhani Express was making a satisfactory British debut there but was fully 17 lengths behind his stable-companion and there's no reason why he should turn the tables. Gibb River looked to have been given a stiffish official rating for that first dip into handicap company, but the improvement he showed in a first-time tongue tie suggests a 5 lb higher mark may not be enough to prevent him from being very competitive and he is entitled to consideration.

Another to emerge with much credit from the same Sandown race was Via Galilei, who produced a career-best to finish a neck second of 12. Via Galilei has a 7 lb pull (plus his promising conditional's 5 lb claim) for finishing a half-length second to Brampour in a listed handicap at Ascot in October and his style of racing (comes late off strong pace) means he is well suited to big-fields. While there's likely to be more a few better handicapped, he's almost certain to give his running and putting anybody off backing him would be folly.

His owner is another doubly-represented as he also has Act of Kalanisi, who landed a 19.5f soft-ground course event in February, entered. While the fact Act of Kalanisi is only 4 lb higher (and only 3 lb off the Timeform ratings-topper) means he could figure on Saturday, he ought to have done better on his return in the Elite Hurdle and may well find things happening too quickly (stays 2¼m on Flat).

Brian Ellison is a dab hand at preparing horses for big Saturday handicaps, whether it be on the Flat (see Moyenne Corniche's big-priced Ebor win) or over obstacles, and he is another trainer with two engaged. With Grade 1-winning juvenile hurdler Marsh Warbler needing to improve upon his eight-length second to Grandouet in the Betfair Hurdle at Haydock on his return last month, Abergavenny makes by the far the most appeal. Although he went into a race at Cheltenham last month unbeaten in three, Abergavenny had to defy huge odds to finish third to Brampour (first start since May), doing very well to be beaten just three lengths and a 5 lb pull with that one makes him very interesting.

Ciceron and Alarazi are a couple of strong travellers who also have the ability to go well, though with the former having questions to answer after a tame-finishing reappearance, preference is very much for the latter after his return fifth in the aforementioned Newbury handicap won by Rock On Ruby. Despite being 10 lb higher than when winning last season's Imperial Cup, there's the suspicion that this free-going sort may not be done with yet and, with that recent outing likely to have brought him on after a seven-month absence, he is not to be overlooked on his first course start in a race that is sure to play to his strengths.

The Irish could be represented by both the Edward O'Grady-trained Sailors Warn and Willie Mullins' Tawaagg. The latter is admirably consistent and runner-up efforts behind Steps To Freedom and Unnacompanied on his last two starts aren't to be sniffed at, but he will have to find a bit more to be right in the mix, so Tawaagg looks the more intriguing contender. He offered hope that he was back to his best when fourth at Listowel when last seen in September and will have benefited from a recent spin on the Flat. A considerable amount of rain could cause a similar deluge of money for such a strong stayer.

Desert Cry, Viva Colonio and Third Intention are others worthy of a mention, with the first-named promising to be especially well-suited by the way the race is likely to be run.

To wrap up, it's clear Paul Nicholls certainly isn't messing about with his trio and all are deserving of maximum respect, but the fact that just 8 lb separates the top 17 horses on Timeform ratings means the race is wide open and it's worth looking for a bit of value. Abergavenny has done nothing wrong in his hurdling career so far and, consequently, it's difficult to find a reason not to back him at current odds, whilst those looking for one likely to outrun a huge price could do a lot worse than Alarazi.

Recommendations

Back Abergavenny [12.0] and Alarazi [25.0] in Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Newbury

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