Ante-post / Simon Baker / 06 July 2011 /

Timeform's Simon Baker looks ahead to the Saturday highlight at Newmarket, the July Cup...

It is often said that the domestic sprinting scene lacks star quality, and the events of the best five- and six-furlong races so far in 2011 haven't done much to dispel that impression. The stage is set for a genuinely high-class performer to stamp its seal on the division.

The obvious candidate to do just that is Godolphin's Delegator who, in his former life as a high-class miler, often shaped as if sprinting could be the making of him. That view was borne out to an extent on a belated first crack over six furlongs when Delegator won the Duke of York Stakes at the Dante meeting by half a length from Regal Parade. The form Delegator showed in the Duke of York wouldn't be good enough to win an ordinary July Cup, but there's clear scope for him to do even better judged on some of his high-class miling form. The Duke of York run combined with a proven high-class level of ability probably does entitle Delegator to be favourite for the July Cup, but he's trading at the sort of price that implies he sets a clear standard for others to aim at, and that's not really the case. Better value surely exists elsewhere.

The first port of call in the search for alternatives is last month's Golden Jubilee Stakes. The winner of that race, Society Rock, misses the July Cup, but the form will be amply represented by several others, including the next five home.

Perhaps the most interesting of the Golden Jubilee runners that will show up at Newmarket is the Australian colt Star Witness, who finished a length and three quarters back in third at Royal Ascot. That doesn't tell the full story though, as Star Witness went through the Golden Jubilee like the best horse in the race, travelling well close up in a race that suited those coming from behind and looking the likely winner when quickening a length clear entering the final furlong only to tie up late. The Golden Jubilee was run on soft ground and represented a decent test at the trip which excuses to some extent Star Witness' failure to quite last home. A July Cup on quick ground is much more a test of outright speed (the Ascot race was run in 1:17.22 - the two most recent July Cup winners both broke 1:10.00 on good to firm ground) which should play to his strengths. Star Witness looks worth backing to assert superiority over those he met at Ascot.

If Star Witness is to win at Newmarket he will need to reverse form with Monsieur Chevalier, who finished runner-up in the Golden Jubilee. Like Star Witness, Monsieur Chevalier had taken in the King's Stand earlier in the week, but unlike that one, the form he showed in the Golden Jubilee was far in advance of anything he had done before. He does need to prove that effort doesn't flatter him, but strictly judged on form he shouldn't be such a big price in comparison to those he finished alongside at Ascot.

The other chief representatives of the Golden Jubilee form are Elzaam and Bated Breath, fourth and fifth respectively in that race. Elzaam is particularly is interesting as he shaped with a bit more promise than the bare result at Ascot implies, making his challenge towards the centre of the track and becoming rather isolated in so doing. He should have an even bigger role to play at Newmarket, though the market does reflect that to some extent as he is now [7.0] second favourite behind Delegator.

Roger Charlton has adopted a somewhat patient approach with Bated Breath, for whom the Golden Jubilee was a first crack at a Group 1 sprint. In the event, he was far from discredited in finishing fifth and there's still time for him to deliver fully on his earlier promise, though more will be needed on Saturday.

Potentially the most interesting of those that represent different lines of form are the three-year-old colts Dream Ahead and Zoffany. Dream Ahead's win in last year's Middle Park Stakes is the single best piece of form on offer in the race, though there are doubts as to his ability to reproduce it bearing in mind a below-par reappearance in the St James's Palace Stakes. Zoffany was one of the top Irish-trained two-year-old colts last year, winning the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes over six furlongs, and he has finished runner-up on all three of his starts this year, going down narrowly in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat over a mile at Chantilly on Sunday. Zoffany should have the pace to prove effective at six furlongs, but he'll need to improve for the step back in trip to play a hand in the July Cup.

Recommendation

Back Star Witness @ [7.0] in the July Cup at Newmarket

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