Classic Chase Betting: Sweet on Bailey's Warwick chance

Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 11 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Former high-class hurdler Blazing Bailey can land the big chase at Warwick.

"Blazing Bailey can give Alan King a third win in Warwick's Classic Chase..."

While the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton forms the second prong of a quality double-header this weekend, the Classic Chase at Warwick is sure to prove as popular with punters as it is with Timeform's Adam Brookes...

With frost having caused the abandonment of the race in 2009, snow causing the reason for it falling by the wayside a year later and waterlogging threatening the meeting 12 months ago, Warwick will be hoping for better luck for its feature three-mile-five-furlong Grade 3 handicap this coming Saturday. With mild weather a feature of winter this time around and the chances of rain forecast for Thursday only, it looks like it's all systems go.

So onto the current entries and firstly, it's worth stating that although one of two trainers to have saddled a pair of winners since the marathon's inauguration in 2004 (a similar race known as the Warwick National was first introduced in 2000), champion Paul Nicholls is without a representative this year. A further piece of housekeeping involves Alan King, the other dual-winning handler, whose 2011 scorer West End Rocker is bypassing the race in order to guard against the horse running well and having his BHA rating raised, with an eye on the publication of the Grand National weights just around the corner.

With Shaking Hands now running in the North Yorkshire National on Thursday, David Pipe looks likely to field two on Saturday. The most interesting of the pair is Sona Sasta as, bar a below-par effort at Leopardstown (good-to-soft) last time, he has been progressive over fences, winning his first two races this time last year before finishing sixth in the four-miler at the Festival and a close second to subsequent Welsh National hero Le Beau Bai at Chepstow on his return last month. He'll stay and looks ideally weighted off 10-2, but it is slightly concerning that he's been campaigned almost exclusively on soft and heavy going.

Pipe certainly isn't firing just the single arrow though as, although figures suggest thorough stayer Shaking Hands has a fair bit to do (will be 10 lb 'wrong' if the top weight is declared), the course winner is less exposed than most and jumped better last time, whilst Faasel (races exclusively on better ground nowadays) may be ungenuine but he's another who stays and was back to his best over fences in April when last seen.

Joining Faasel at the top of the figures tree is Fortification, a very easy winner at Exeter (strong form) in November on his return from a summer break/first start for Kieran Burke. On that form, and indeed his similarly strong third to Giles Cross and Rey Nacarado in the Southern National next time, he has every chance but his weakness in the market ahead of a zestless effort last time means he would need to be well-supported before he becomes a betting proposition.

Strongbows Legend is intriguing as he's often shaped as though having a good race in him, especially when hacking up in a four-finisher heavy-ground Hereford handicap in mid-December. He looked a different horse allowed to make the running that day, his fencing much more fluent than has been the case, and, although he unseated next time (travelling well close up), it wouldn't be a surprise if he put up a bold show. A BHA rating 19 lb higher (5 lb out of the handicap) makes thing difficult though, and it's worth noting he was beaten miles by Fortification at Exeter three runs ago.

Leading Contender came on for his reappearance at Newbury last time but looked hard work there and isn't the force of old, so is passed over along with Fredo, who looks on a stiff mark and is yet to prove he stays further than 25f. Leicester winner Key Cutter has his chance but figures suggest it's an outside one, so he too is overlooked.

Blazing Bailey, however, catches the eye. Yes, he's been well below form in the Hennessy and Welsh National in two starts so far this season, but his return (over hurdles) last year was similarly bleak, yet he bounced back in the New Year to win handicap chases at Cheltenham and Ffos Las. All types of ground comes alike to him and with the pace of staying chases seeming to allow him to get into a rhythm (can race lazily), he looks one to be interested in now back down to the mark of that latter victory.

Neptune Equester is another to consider having bettered his September return to win at Haydock two months later, showing stamina to be his strong suit. Suspect jumping now looks a thing of the past with him and, having been generously dropped 2 lb for finishing a well-held fifth over an inadequate trip in the Rowland Meyrick last time, he's very much on the radar.

Of the rest, Hey Big Spender (Warwick scorer last February) looks to have a mammoth task shouldering top weight, whilst Bench Warrant (generally poor jumper with even poorer win record), Miko de Beauchene (rarely completes nowadays), On Borrowed Wings (stiff task making return to fences) and Hello Bud (gallant performer but surely too old) are also up against it. It's also difficult to enthuse about the chances of the inconsistent Major Malarkey, a sketchy jumper weighted to his best, and the lightly-raced veteran Morning Moment, who showed temperament having failed to get to the front last time.

To conclude, there's no doubt Sona Sasta has a fair bit going for him, hence his position in the market, but unless there is a hefty downpour, it may be sensible to look elsewhere. Neptune Equester makes plenty of appeal and the nearer the ground gets to 'good' the better his chance, but in anticipation of Wayne Hutchinson (one of the best riders around in such races) taking the mount and Hey Big Spender remaining at the head of the weights, a chance is taken on ten-year-old Blazing Bailey giving Alan King a third win in Warwick's Classic Chase.

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